Key takeaways
Rising supply and weak technical indicators could pressure PI toward key support at $0.1184.
Around 16 million PI tokens are set to be unlocked on Thursday, with another 14.8 million becoming eligible for mainnet migration on Friday, potentially increasing selling pressure.
Pi Network (PI) traded lower on Thursday after suffering three consecutive days of losses earlier in the week. The token remains locked in a broader downtrend that has persisted since late April.
The recovery faces a significant near-term challenge as millions of new PI tokens are scheduled to enter circulation, potentially increasing selling pressure and limiting upside momentum.
Major token unlocks could increase supply pressure
According to PiScan data, approximately 16 million PI tokens are scheduled to be unlocked on Thursday.
A further 14.8 million PI tokens are expected to become eligible for mainnet migration on Friday, adding to concerns about rising circulating supply.
The newly unlocked tokens can potentially be transferred to centralized exchanges, increasing the likelihood of additional selling activity.
Historically, large token unlock events often create short-term downward pressure as investors gain access to previously restricted holdings.
Network activity also points to notable withdrawals among major wallets. PiScan data shows that three of the five largest transactions recorded over the past 24 hours involved the movement of approximately 255,000 PI tokens.
PI technical outlook remains bearish
At the time of writing, PI is trading above $0.1250, but the broader technical picture remains weak.
The token continues to trade below key moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day) on the four-hour chart.
The clustering of these indicators above the current price suggests that sellers continue to control the broader trend.
Technical momentum signals offer little evidence of a strong recovery. The RSI is hovering near 43, indicating weak buying pressure and a lack of strong bullish momentum.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal line remain slightly below zero, reflecting ongoing bearish conditions despite the recent rebound.
Together, these indicators suggest that any short-term rallies could face difficulty sustaining momentum.
If the rally resumes, PI would need to overcome the $0.1299 resistance to enable it to target the higher supply zones at $0.1360 (100-period EMA) and $0.1400.
However, if the bearish trend persists, the bulls will need to defend the core support levels at $0.1184 and $0.1000.
A break below $0.1184 could expose PI to further downside and potentially trigger a move toward the $0.1000 region.
While Pi Network has managed to stabilize after several days of losses, the combination of weak technical momentum and substantial upcoming token unlocks continues to favor the bears.
Unless demand strengthens enough to absorb the incoming supply, the current rebound risks becoming a temporary relief rally, with the recently established $0.1184 support level remaining the critical line to watch in the days ahead.
