Key takeaways:
Santiment data shows rising fear among XRP traders, a pattern that previously preceded a 125% rebound.
XRP’s triangle breakout targets $4.29, while whale accumulation and ETF optimism support the upside.
XRP (XRP) is witnessing a steep decline in bullish sentiment among retail traders as fear and frustration return to levels last seen during the sell-off led by President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements in April.
Is XRP price going to crash?
XRP’s bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio has fallen below 1.0 for the past two days, meaning bearish mentions now outnumber positive ones across social media, according to onchain analytics platform Santiment.
But Santiment sees this so-called “retail FUD” — shorthand for fear, uncertainty, and doubt — as a bullish indicator.
At the core of their upside outlook is XRP’s reaction to the ratio’s decline in April. Back then, the token initially dipped by over 25%, but later rebounded by more than 125%, indicating that the broader market was moving “opposite to small trader expectations.”
Simply put, when impatient XRP traders began selling near local lows, stronger hands stepped in to accumulate and absorb the bearish pressure. The token may undergo a price breakout — instead of a crash — if the fractal plays out as Santiment anticipates.
Top XRP address cohorts are accumulating
Onchain metrics tracking retail and whale addresses also support a bullish outlook.
For instance, XRP supply among entities holding more than 100 tokens has increased persistently during its price consolidation in recent months, according to data resource Glassnode.
XRP traders remain resilient as broader risk markets strengthen amid a weaker US dollar and the ongoing US government shutdown.
Growing optimism around potential SEC approval of XRP ETFs has also helped offset social media pessimism, signaling that onchain and institutional sentiment remain firmly bullish.
XRP symmetrical triangle breakout hints at 45% rally next
From a technical perspective, XRP appears to be in the breakout phase of its symmetrical triangle pattern.
The price is currently pulling back slightly to retest the upper boundary of the triangle it just broke out from. In technical analysis, this is called a “retest” — when the market checks whether a former resistance level can now act as support.
A successful rebound from this level could pave the way for a rally toward $4.29, roughly 45% above current prices. The upside target aligns with multiple XRP bullish predictions shared in the past.
Related: XRP price: Why October will be the most bullish month of 2025
Conversely, a decisive break below the trendline would invalidate the bullish setup and increase the likelihood of a deeper XRP price pullback toward the lower boundary near $2.33.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
