XRP is below the average buy price of the past year, putting many holders in the red and increasing downside risk in the near term.
XRP (XRP) mirrored a 50% crash scenario from 2022 as it underwent its sharpest weekly selloff since October 2025.
Key takeaways:
New XRP buyers are in the red
As of Monday, XRP was trading around $1.60, down more than 20% over the past week and sitting well below the cost basis of buyers from the last 12 months.
It is now just above its aggregated realized price near $1.48, which tracks the average cost basis of all XRP in circulation. It means that a large share of XRP’s recent buyers are underwater.
A decisive break below $1.48 would mean the average holder will be underwater, a setup that closely matches the 2022 bear phase that ultimately ended in a 50% drawdown to about $0.30.
Additionally, XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative, with large holders distributing rather than accumulating, data from CryptoQuant shows.
When new buyers are already underwater, continued whale selling can increase the overhead supply and weaken any rebound attempts.
Stablecoin outflows add to XRP downside risks
Furthermore, stablecoin flows into exchanges flipped sharply negative in late 2025, with 30-day net outflows reaching roughly $9.6 billion.
Outflows eased in January, but net flows stayed negative at around $4 billion, according to data gathered by Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant.
Related: Crypto funds post second week of outflows at $1.7B: CoinShares
Fewer stablecoins on exchanges reduces buying pressure, making it harder for XRP to rise above the realized price.
XRP price risks crashing by another 50%
Price charts show that XRP has held above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA; the purple line) at around $1.43, close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48.
But while XRP could still slip into the $1.43–$1.48 support band in February, its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals.
In any case, XRP may spend weeks finding its footing before attempting a stronger recovery by late Q1 or Q2 2026 if the RSI holds around 38 as it has throughout history.
Conversely, a decisive breakdown below XRP’s 100-2W EMA will likely invalidate the potential recovery scenario.
In that case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA (the blue line) near $1 as early as March, echoing the kind of breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022.
A drop to $1 would put XRP about 36% below current levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
