Cardano (ADA), the 12th cryptocurrency by market cap, was trading at $0.26 at writing time, having gained 2.84% in the past day following the wider market rally.
That said, the coin is priced at 71% below its September 2025 price of $0.90, and 91.5% below its September 2021 all-time high of $3.10.
Source: CoinMarketCap
ADA’s 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is down 43%, while its open interest is $374.21 million (-3.49% in the last 24h).
Cardano price analysis
Despite these negative price movements, analysis shows Cardano is primed for a reversal into a bullish trend, with a possible new all-time high before the year’s end.
Historically, a dip in MVRV, such as the 30% dip of December 2023, brought with it a 58% rally, according to blockchain analysis firm Santiment.
ADA’s relative strength index (RSI) is also at the oversold level, which signals an impending price upswing. This is further supported by the short-to-long ratio, which has been high since June 2023. Overcrowding of sellers often triggers massive liquidations, a short squeeze, and consequent bear trend reversal.
Events to watch for
Notably, major institutions have increased their exposure to Cardano, including Grayscale Investments, 21Shares, and ETC Group. Currently, institutional flows are focused on ETPs and multi-asset funds, while SEC approval for a Cardano ETF remains pending.
Other than geopolitical and economic happenings, the price of ADA is likely to be influenced by the Midnight launch scheduled for the end of this month. This would increase decentralization and privacy on the Cardano blockchain, thereby increasing its institutional appeal.
Another event is the pre-release of Cardano Node 10.7.0, a precursor to the van Rossem hard fork that is meant to increase the blockchain’s smart contract and cryptographic abilities.
If ADA holds above $0.253, it could test resistance between $0.285 and $0.30. If not, the coin could drop towards $0.244.
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