In brief
CME FedWatch data shows a 70% chance of a July rate cut, with 95% odds of easing by October, as markets front-run the Fed despite no move this week.
Ethereum rallied 20% as altcoins broadly outperformed, while Bitcoin breached the $100K milestone, triggering fresh upside positioning.
Trump’s U.K. trade pact boosted sentiment across risk assets, though economists called the agreement symbolic and economically limited.
Bitcoin rallied sharply on Thursday, alongside major altcoins and equities, as traders responded to growing expectations of interest rate cuts, early signs of renewed institutional demand, and a tentative U.S.-U.K. trade agreement that injected fresh optimism into global markets.
The move came despite the Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell declined to commit to a timeline for potential easing, futures markets are already pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut in July, with CME’s FedWatch tool showing a 95% probability of at least one cut by October.
President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Powell, calling him a “fool” on Thursday, claiming that cutting rates “would be like jet fuel” for the economy.
Bitcoin traded as high as $103,460 early Friday in Asia, rising more than 6% over 24 hours. Ethereum is leading altcoins, up 20%, after breaching $2,200 for the first time since March.
Solana and Cardano each rose more than 10%, while gold fell over 2%, reflecting a rotation from traditional hedges into higher-risk assets.
“The flow indicates growing optimism as traders position for further upside,” QCP Capital wrote in a note, pointing to strong demand for call options expiring in May and June.
However, the firm cautioned that price confirmation was still needed: “Until Bitcoin can close above the $100,000 handle on the daily, we see limited reward in chasing momentum at current levels.”
With Bitcoin now firmly above that coveted milestone, traders are repositioning for further potential upside as optimism for more trade deals between the U.S. and its allies grows.
On Thursday, President Trump announced what he described as a “major” trade deal with the U.K.—his first since returning to office.
The agreement includes minor tariff adjustments and quota relief for British auto and steel exports, but analysts were skeptical about its economic impact.
“The economic reality of this is basically… very, very small,” economist Justin Wolfers told Australia’s public broadcaster, the ABC.
Tapas Strickland, Head of Market Economics from one of the country’s big four banks, NAB, described the U.K.-U.S. trade pact as “only a framework.”
Still, markets welcomed the prospect of easing trade tensions.
U.S. equity indexes posted solid gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq rising 1.1%. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.3%, reflecting more muted sentiment in London.
ARK Invest’s April report pointed to a strengthening base case for Bitcoin, citing 29,800 BTC in net inflows to U.S. spot ETFs—the highest since November—and a decline in exchange balances to 14%, the lowest level since 2018.
“This price action strengthens the view that Bitcoin should be considered a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty,” the firm said.
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