Although the market recovery in February remains fragile, it has revealed several notable signals. These signs have led analysts to expect that an altcoin season could emerge in March.
However, investor sentiment remains cautious, with capital still favoring Bitcoin over altcoins, which could hinder a broader recovery.
Hope Returns to the Altcoin Market in March
Data from CryptoQuant shows that only about 5% of altcoins listed on Binance are trading above their 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA). This means that 95% remain below this level, reflecting the current weak performance of altcoins.
However, historical patterns offer a glimmer of hope. Over the past two years, this ratio typically stayed below 15% for a maximum of five months before rebounding. This pattern appeared during the June–October 2024 period and again from February to June 2025.
The ratio began declining in October last year and has now reached the end of its fifth month. This development raises expectations of a potential demand boost, as investors may view most altcoins as having fallen to attractive price levels.
Meanwhile, several analysts have identified early positive signals on the OTHERS/BTC chart in February, which tracks total altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin against BTC.
Analyst Blade noted that the chart shows potential reversal signs on the monthly timeframe. The MACD indicator has crossed above the signal line and formed its first green histogram bar since early 2024. Similar signals appeared before major altcoin rallies in 2017 and 2020.
“Momentum shift plus structure compression usually precede expansion. The biggest altseason is coming,” Blade predicted.
These factors have strengthened expectations that altcoins could post a recovery in March.
Altcoin Investors Remain Cautious
For a more balanced perspective, data from CryptoQuant indicates that the ratio of altcoin trading volume to Bitcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges (CEXs) has fallen to its lowest level in the past year.
In 2025, the ratio peaked at around 3.5. It then gradually declined, falling below 2.5 by late last year and continuing to hover near 2.2 in early 2026.
This trend shows that investor expectations for an altcoin season remain weak. Capital continues to concentrate mainly on Bitcoin, leaving altcoins relatively neglected on centralized exchanges. A true altcoin season may require sustained capital rotation and fresh inflows into the market.
At the time of writing, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 43, still far from the 75-point threshold needed to confirm an altcoin season.
A recent report by BeInCrypto stated that the altcoin market has faced 13 consecutive months of net selling. Even if an altcoin season materializes, it is likely to be selective and driven by strong fundamentals.
