VanEck Claims Bitcoin Reserves Could Offset $21T US Debt by 2049

VanEck has predicted that the United States could reduce its national debt by $21 trillion in the next 24 years.

The firm’s analysts believe that this could be achieved by creating a one million Bitcoin reserve over the next five years.

VanEck’s Estimate

According to the asset management company, a U.S. BTC reserve could slash the national debt if the crypto’s price increases to $21 million by 2049. This would represent around 18% of the total U.S. debt at that time.

“If the U.S. government follows the BITCOIN Act’s proposed path – accumulating 1 million BTC by 2029 – our analysis suggests this reserve could offset around $21 trillion of national debt by 2049,” said the institution’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, in its latest report.

VanEck’s estimate assumes that the cryptocurrency’s price will increase at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, rising from $100,000 to $21 million per BTC in the next 24 years, while the country’s national debt climbs at 5% CAGR from $36 trillion at the start of 2025 to $116 trillion over the same period.

The prediction aligns with the BITCOIN Act proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis. Reacting to VanEck’s proposal, the lawmaker posted on X, “Good idea.”

The Republican has been a vocal supporter of the idea of a U.S. BTC reserve. She has previously advocated for the initiative as a strategy to address the $36 trillion national debt and bolster the U.S. dollar’s global standing. She argues that the asset’s rising value could help reduce the debt over the next 20 years.

Lummis believes establishing this concept would correct past financial missteps and ease economic pressure on younger generations. However, the legislation that would facilitate the creation of the stockpile is yet to be reviewed by the Senate or House.

Growing Popularity Among Nations

Following in the footsteps of President Donald Trump, the concept of a BTC stockpile is gaining international attention, and several governments are actively considering its potential use.

In Venezuela, opposition leader María Corina Machado supports incorporating the cryptocurrency into the country’s supply, arguing that it could help recover stolen wealth and provide aid to its most vulnerable citizens.

Switzerland is also exploring this possibility, with its National Bank evaluating the coin’s utility as a backup asset alongside gold. Similarly, Hong Kong’s legislator Wu Jiezhuang proposed integrating Bitcoin into the country’s financial reserves in December to enhance economic resilience.

However, not everyone supports the idea. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes recently dismissed it as an impractical strategy that would serve political interests rather than ensure financial stability.