Bitcoin Price could face another decline if the US stock market enters a major correction, with market analyst identifying $63,000 to $75,000 as a potential support zone. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has generally suffered larger losses than US stocks during major market sell-offs, raising concerns about the impact of a possible 20% drop in the S&P 500.
Why Could a Stock Market Crash Affect Bitcoin?
Investors often reduce exposure to risky assets during market sell-offs, which can put pressure on both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has shown this pattern during previous market downturns.
Since 2014, the S&P 500 has experienced six declines of at least 10% from an all-time high. Bitcoin fell more sharply than the index in five of those six cases. During the major downturns of late 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025, Bitcoin’s losses ranged from approximately 21% to 66%.
How Low Could Bitcoin Go?
The S&P 500 closed at around 7,710 on October 20, less than 2% below its October 6 record high. A 20% decline from that peak would bring the index to approximately 6,250.
Bitcoin’s potential downside would depend on the severity of the stock market correction. Based on comparisons with previous downturns, the analyst outlined three scenarios:
$67,500: A decline similar to the 2025 market correction.$43,000: A scenario comparable to the 2020 sell-off.$29,000: A deeper decline resembling the 2022 bear market.
These figures are illustrative scenarios, not confirmed forecasts. The analyst’s current support zone is between $63,000 and $75,000.
Is Bitcoin Close to Another Decline?
The analyst said the S&P 500’s rally since the summer has become uneven, suggesting that the index could be approaching a short-term peak. However, the market has not confirmed a major downturn, and another move to a record high remains possible.
Bitcoin is already roughly one-third below its own all-time high, which could limit further losses. However, its correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to around 0.6 over the past six weeks, indicating that the two markets have recently moved more closely together.
In the near term, the analyst is watching whether Bitcoin can extend its rebound toward $85,700. If the recovery loses momentum, another downward move could follow.
Can Bitcoin Recover After a Stock Market Crash?
Despite its larger losses during previous sell-offs, Bitcoin has often recovered within months of a stock market bottom. In five of the six historical cases examined, BTC was trading higher six months after the S&P 500 reached its low. Its median gain over that period was approximately 58%.
However, the analyst cautioned that the current market may behave differently. A stock market correction could deepen Bitcoin’s losses, while the timing and strength of any recovery would depend on how both markets develop.
For now, the key question is whether the S&P 500 can sustain its rally or begins a deeper correction that puts additional pressure on Bitcoin.
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