Polymarket’s crypto prediction markets failed to anticipate Kamala Harris’s selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate, favoring Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Despite Walz being a longshot, with odds fluctuating between 15% and 25% on Polymarket, Shapiro maintained a dominant position with a 65% chance of being chosen since the end of July.
In total, Walz had $12.9 million worth of bets placed on him securing the position, with his chances at just 25% on the day of his selection. In contrast, $16.5 million was wagered on Shapiro attaining the VP nomination.
Governor Walz’s selection was confirmed when Harris extended the offer on Aug. 6, marking a pivotal moment in the Democratic campaign. This decision spotlights the dynamic nature of political forecasting, where even well-regarded prediction markets can misjudge outcomes. Walz, known for his progressive policies but firm stance on regulatory issues, contrasts sharply with Shapiro’s pro-Bitcoin mining stance, which had garnered significant attention from the crypto community.
Walz’s odds on traditional betting sites were also low. However, his odds had been slashed dramatically in the lead-up, something not seen as clearly on Polymarket.
On PredictIt, a non-crypto prediction market that, unlike Polymarket, is open to US citizens without using a VPN, had Walz ahead on Aug. 5. Shaprio’s odds dropped dramatically, while Walz soared the day before the announcement.
When Walz jumped to $0.62 on PredicitIt on Aug. 5, he remained at $0.27 on Polymarket. Similarly, Shapiro sat at $0.64 on the same day on Polymarket while he was at $0.39 on PredictIt. Questions arise about whether Polymarket’s crypto focus and lack of broad US citizen participation skews its impact in the 2024 US Elections.
The trend toward pro-crypto nominees extends to the Presidential odds, with Harris at $0.54 on PredictIt compared to Trump at $0.47. On Polymarket, Trump leads priced at $0.52 compared to Harris at $0.47. However, the deep liquidity of Polymarket offers a contrasting point as $533 million has been wagered in crypto compared to just 32.7 million shares on PredictIt.
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