When altcoin season? This is the question many traders and investors are asking themselves, having experienced a lot of suffering over the past two years. First, the deep bear market of 2022 drove their favorite cryptocurrencies to multi-year lows. Later, altcoin fans had to look on with envy as Bitcoin (BTC) soared 180% in 2023.
At the same time, Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, recently recorded an 18-month low against Bitcoin. Because of this, some are even wondering if ETH is dead. And if ETH is not doing well, then the entire altcoin market remains in retreat. Does this mean that the next altcoin season will remain a dream?
In spite of this, there are signals on several charts that may point to an upcoming altcoin season. They concern both the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL2), the altcoin index, and even the ETH price action itself.
Altcoin Market Capitalization Ready to Break Out
From the November 2021 peak at $1.71 trillion through June 2022’s bottom of $427.57 billion, the market capitalization index (TOTAL2) was in a downtrend. Then, from mid-2022 until November 2023, altcoins were in a long-term accumulation phase. It ran in a parallel channel with a range between $494 billion (green line) and $657 billion (red line).
During this period, the key resistance level remained at $657 billion, which repeatedly served as both support during the bull market and resistance during the accumulation (blue arrows). It was not until November 2023 that the altcoin capitalization managed to break through this resistance and leave the long-term accumulation range.
The breakout is confirmed by two important technical events. First, the chart produced a bullish long-term structure. After generating a higher high (HH) and a higher low (HL), a second higher high has currently appeared. This indicates the beginning of a long-term uptrend.
Moreover, the breakout is confirmed by the altcoin trading volume, which has broken out above the descending resistance line (blue arrow). This resistance line has been in place since the altcoin season of mid-2021, so breaking through it is a very bullish signal.
The next target for TOTAL2 is another long-term resistance at $942 billion. Once it is reached, one can expect a correction and validation of the breakout area at $657 billion as support.
Moreover, an additional confirmation of the upcoming altcoin season is the fractal structure of the TOTAL2 chart, recently published by well-known analyst @el_crypto_prof. He pointed out that this is the third time in history that the altcoin capitalization has generated a double bottom with a higher low and a false breakout.
The previous two times occurred in 2016 and 2020. In both cases, there was later an exponential upward movement and a strong altcoin season.
Altcoin Season Index Ends Year of Bitcoin
The second signal in favor of the coming altcoin move is the well-known Altcoin Season Index. This index monitors the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin at three intervals: monthly, quarterly, and yearly. And it is the latter that indicates an impending trend change.
The aforementioned analyst @el_crypto_prof noted in another of his tweets that the indicator is just repeating the 2020 fractal structure. He wrote:
“The Altcoin Season Index shows that we are on the verge of leaving the $BTC zone.”
This means that the suffering of altcoins against Bitcoin, which lasted for about 2 years, may soon be over. If this long-term indicator behaves similarly, as it did in 2020, a strong altcoin season can be expected in 2024.
Ethereum on the Verge of a Strong Uptrend
Finally, the last signal in favor of the altcoin season is the chart of the price of Ethereum (ETH) itself. Despite the fact that the ETH/BTC pair is currently at a long-term low, it could be an ideal time to take a long position here.
If the double-bottom scenario plays out and ETH bounces off the 0.052 BTC level, it could quickly surge to the nearest resistance at 0.085 BTC. However, if this fails and Ethereum collapses, the next support is at the 0.04 BTC level. Reaching this level would be a validation of the previous 2018-2021 resistance area.
In contrast, ETH paired with USDT is in the process of forming a bullish structure, the fractal of which was repeated just before the previous bull market. This was pointed out on X by trader @IamCryptoWolf in his recent post.
According to him, the “chart is self-explanatory,” as it shows a structure similar to the price action of the second half of 2020. If Ethereum manages to hold the $1935 level and validate it as support, an exponential upward movement could be initiated. If the scenario from the previous bull market repeats itself, ETH could experience a surge over the next 18 months.
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