Key takeaways
XLM is down 2% on Thursday after the 100-day EMA capped its short-term recovery run.
XLM futures Open Interest stabilizes, but the declining long-to-short ratio signals a bearish bias.
XLM flips bearish as the leverage market loses confidence
Stellar (XLM) extended its losses on Thursday, with the token struggling to regain momentum as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1798 continues to cap upside attempts, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook.
Sentiment in the derivatives market also points to growing downside expectations. Data from Coinglass shows that XLM futures Open Interest (OI) remains elevated at $114.70 million after climbing sharply from $99.45 million earlier this week, signaling sustained trader activity despite weak price action.
However, bearish positioning continues to dominate. The long-to-short ratio currently sits at 0.7632 — a level that has remained below 1 since mid-January — indicating that traders are increasingly favoring short positions and anticipating further downside for XLM.
Technical forecast: XLM could drop below $0.1700
The XLM/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient, indicating that the bears have regained control in the near term.
XLM is trading below the key 100-day EMA while still holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669.
Momentum indicators still show some signs of resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62 on the 4-hour timeframe, remaining above the neutral midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to trade above its signal line, suggesting buyers have not fully lost control.
Still, downside risks remain elevated. If XLM falls below the 50-day EMA support at $0.1669, the token could slide toward the key consolidation support zone at $0.1471 — a level that has held since early February.
On the upside, bulls would need to push XLM above the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 to uphold a bullish sentiment.
A daily candle close above that resistance could pave the way for a move toward the 200-day EMA near $0.2101.
