Bitcoin price remains under pressure, down around 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading close to $66,000 at press time. While short-term rebounds continue to appear, the broader structure still looks weak.
Now, even major institutions are turning cautious on their Bitcoin price predictions. New on-chain signals and long-term holders suggest the downside risk is not finished yet.
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Standard Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows
Standard Chartered recently reiterated that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before any sustained recovery. The bank pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key risks. When this view is compared with current market data, it lines up perfectly.
On the price chart, Bitcoin has broken down from a bear flag structure. A bear flag forms when prices consolidate after a sharp fall and then resume the downtrend. This pattern suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, even when short-term rebounds appear.
At the same time, institutional flow indicators are weakening. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now looks weaker than it did during the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell around 31%.
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This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen faster than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional buying is not returning yet. Without sustained inflows from large investors, rallies struggle to hold.
It is worth noting that during the April-October 2025 phase, when BTC peaked, there were only a few instances when the CMF fell under the zero line, and that too marginally. But now, the CMF dip looks way scarier.
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This is why Standard Chartered’s caution makes sense. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the same story. But institutional weakness is not the only concern.
On-Chain Profits and Long-Term Holders Still Point to More Downside
Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows that investor confidence remains fragile.
One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on by comparing current prices with when coins were last moved.
During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was near 0.42. That showed minimal unrealized profits and supported a recovery. Today, NUPL has dropped much lower. It fell to around 0.11 in early February and is now near 0.17. This means most of the leftover profits from the bull cycle have already been wiped out. But this doesn’t confirm a bottom if the bigger picture is taken into consideration.
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History shows NUPL can still fall further. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to near 0.02 when Bitcoin traded around $20,000. That marked deep capitulation before the next major rally began. Compared to that period, current NUPL levels remain relatively elevated. This suggests the market may not be fully washed out yet.
Long-term holder behavior supports this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than one year. These investors usually accumulate during major bottoms and help stabilize prices.
Right now, they are still net sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders reduced holdings by more than 170,000 BTC. At the peak of recent selling, in February 2026, outflows reached nearly 245,000 BTC. This is a heavier distribution than during the January–April 2025 correction.
Back then, demand from long-term holders had already started recovering before prices bounced. Today, that recovery has not appeared. In simple terms, institutions are cautious, profits are shrinking, and long-term holders are not stepping in yet. This combination makes a strong rebound unlikely in the near term.
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Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Still Matters on the Bitcoin Price Chart
With fundamentals and on-chain data aligned to the downside, the Bitcoin price levels now become critical.
The current bear flag projection points toward a broad support zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This range aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
The midpoint of this zone sits close to $50,000, which remains a major psychological level. Round numbers often attract strong buying and selling activity, making them natural magnets during corrections. This is why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view fits the technical structure. It is not an arbitrary target. It sits directly inside the main support band.
If selling pressure continues and ETF flows remain weak, Bitcoin could test this region in the coming months. In a deeper risk-off scenario, downside could even extend toward $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historical support.
For this bearish Bitcoin price prediction to slow down, BTC would need to reclaim and hold above the $72,100 region with strong volume and renewed institutional inflows. That would signal that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. So far, there is no evidence of that.
