Sees Bitcoin Soaring to $200K in Q4 on Fed Policy Shift

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) battling fresh volatility, with prices dipping to their lowest in nearly two months, some market watchers argue that the correction is far from a signal of a cycle top.

Instead, they predict the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision could trigger a major rally, pushing the number one cryptocurrency to unprecedented levels by year’s end.

Analysts Push Back Against Bearish Sentiment

As CryptoPotato reported, Bitcoin fell below $108,100 on August 29 after U.S. PCE inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected, dragging the wider crypto market down by $170 billion in a single day. The move only added more fuel to speculation that the bull run may have already peaked.

However, some experts are challenging that view. In a detailed post on X, pseudonymous analyst Mr. Wall Street argued that the current sell-off is a recalibration, not a bear market. According to him, true market peaks are usually born from universal euphoria, not the division and uncertainty currently seen among investors.

Furthermore, he focused his attention on what he considers to be September’s main event: the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is scheduled to take place in the next two weeks. While markets have priced in a standard 25 basis point rate cut, he suggests weakening labor data could force the Fed’s hand into a more substantial 50 bp reduction.

Such a move, in his opinion, would catch markets off guard and likely trigger a wave of fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) buying, as it would signal the true beginning of a renewed quantitative easing cycle. This scenario forms the basis for his price targets of $140,000 to $145,000 and, ultimately, $160,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán also contributed to the bullish case, noting in a recent post that several key metrics rule out a cycle top. He pointed to the NVT ratio staying low, which indicates sound network health relative to valuation, as well as stable miner reserves, which lack the aggressive selling typical of major peaks.

Additionally, the MVRV ratio hasn’t reached the overheated levels historically associated with cycle climaxes. These factors suggest long-term holder accumulation is going on, providing a solid foundation for growth.

Bitcoin Price Action

Meanwhile, at the market, Bitcoin was trading at $107,420 at the time of this writing, per CoinGecko. That puts it down 1.2% in the last 24 hours and 5.1% over the past week, underperforming the broader crypto market’s 1.5% dip in the same period.

Furthermore, the OG crypto has shed 7.2% in two weeks and 5.5% across the last month. However, its year-on-year performance remains its saving grace, with the asset up 83.5% in that time.

The recent drop places BTC 13.5% below its August 14 all-time high of $124,000. While the $107,000 to $109,000 range has provided near-term support, the market has lacked the momentum needed to reclaim higher levels.