Mike Rychko, a researcher at prediction market infrastructure provider Azuro, thinks prediction markets are breaking into the mainstream — and the data appears to back him up.
In a Thursday X post, Rychko argued that prediction markets are entering the real world beyond crypto and that their accessibility is likely to result in their success as the first decentralized finance (DeFi) product that achieves mass adoption.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko wrote. “But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins’ — that’s a language anyone speaks.”
He added that “humans are lazy by design” and crave a “clean, digestible signal,” and said that prediction markets meet that demand by turning complex forecasts into simple data points.
“That simplicity is precisely why prediction markets will find mass adoption faster than most DeFi experiments ever did.”
Earlier this month, crypto-powered prediction market Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from NYSE parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, at a $9 billion valuation.
Reports in early September suggested that Polymarket aims for a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, following the appointment of the US President’s son to the company’s board of directors.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to wager stablecoins on real-world events, from elections to sports outcomes. The platform surged in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, when its activity and trading volume hit record highs.
Prediction markets enter the zeitgeist
Rychko noted that prediction markets have reached unprecedented levels of mainstream visibility in recent months. Prediction market and Polymarket competitor Kalshi’s New York City screen, which shows a live feed of the market dedicated to the city’s mayoral election, has attracted widespread attention, with the video drawing nearly 13 million views on X alone.
Rychko described the display as “a public signal” and a “real-time reflection of collective belief.” “The same way stock tickers once defined the financial era of the 80s, prediction tickers are starting to define the informational economy of the 2020s,“ he wrote.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the US that operates under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making it the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. The platform was recently featured on the long-running animated show South Park, a cornerstone of pop culture, in an episode focused on US President Donald Trump.
Related: NYSE parent invests $2B in Polymarket at $9B valuation
Prediction markets see major growth
Kalshi is not a crypto-driven platform, but it has joined a market segment largely spurred to life by a crypto project.
Polymarket grew in notoriety in late 2024, as its market during the United States presidential elections attracted significant attention and capital. The service reached its highest-ever number of daily active wallets at the beginning of 2025 — over 72,600 on Jan. 19, Dune data shows.
The highest number of transactions on the platform took place on Dec. 27, 2024: nearly 590,000 in a day. Although the platform has not returned to those peaks, it maintains strong usage. This month, it processed more than $1 billion in trading volume, bringing cumulative volume to over $15.7 billion, according to Dune.
Related: Nobel Peace Prize bets on Polymarket under scrutiny: Report
This trend is clearly visible when examining the total value locked on Polmarket. According to DefiLlama, the protocol now controls over $194 million — 62% lower than the nearly $512 million reported at the height of US Presidential election betting, but also 2,325% higher than the $8 million it held exactly one year ago.
Rychko said this steady activity underscores the appeal of prediction markets as DeFi’s most relatable product — one that blends cultural relevance with real-world financial participation.
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