A number of developments have led to speculations that the established 4-year Bitcoin cycle that has often predicted when the bull and bear market starts and end has ended. If this is the case, it would mean that price action will not go as expected. Just as it seems there was a premature start to the bull market, it is possible that there would be a premature start to the bear market as well.
Developments That Threaten The 4-Year Cycle
The 4-year cycle coincides with the Bitcoin halving, which happens every four years when block rewards for miners are cut in half. Historically, the bull market has only begun after the Bitcoin halving is completed, with the BTC price hitting a new all-time high a year after the halving. Then, the bear market follows after all-time high levels and continues until the next halving. This has been the case for the last three cycles, until 2024, when everything changed.
The year 2024 was the last halving year, and the expectation was that the Bitcoin price would hit new all-time highs a year later, in 2025. However, with the advent of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January 2024, the BTC price exploded and soared to new all-time highs months before the scheduled halving.
As the year progressed, so did the BTC price, and after the halving was completed on April 20, the price pushed forward. By December 2024, the price had already crossed $100,000, almost doubling the value of its $69,000 all-time high from the previous cycle.
Not only are Spot Bitcoin ETFs driving the BTC price, but there was also the entrance of Bitcoin treasury companies. This was started by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), which started buying BTC in 2020. Fast forward to 2025, and the company now holds over $74 billion worth of BTC, with the latest buy of 430 BTC announced on Monday.
Given the entrance of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and over 100 Bitcoin treasury companies, none of which have existed in previous cycles, it seems BTC has now entered into uncharted territory. This could effectively end the 4-year cycle with billions of dollars pouring into the market at an unprecedented rate.
What If The Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Still Intact?
Frank Fetter, a quant at Vibe Capital Management, has expressed what could be next if the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is intact. As he points out, traditionally, there has been an average of 1,060 between Bitcoin making a bottom and then making a top in the bull market.
Currently, BTC is only approximately 1,000 days from its 2022 bottom, meaning there are still a couple of months to go. This could mean that there is some runway left for Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs before the next bear market rolls around. “If the traditional four-year cycle continues, the next 100 days could be interesting,” Fetter stated.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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