While Bitcoin continues to trade near its recent lows, several market analysts believe the altcoin market is sending a very different signal. Some experts see the early stages of a new bull cycle, while others, like Arthur Hayes, are taking a more cautious approach. In particular, the market influence of Hayes is being discussed by many traders.
Arthur Hayes Exits Altcoins
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes revealed in a recent interview that he has sold all of his altcoin holdings, including popular tokens such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), NEAR Protocol and Worldcoin.
According to Hayes, the main reason behind his decision is the growing risk surrounding the AI investment boom. He explained that, contrary to his earlier expectations, newly created fiat liquidity has not flowed into Bitcoin. Instead, most of that capital has been absorbed by the AI sector.
“It became almost impossible for Bitcoin to receive that liquidity because everyone’s just doing AI.” He said.
Hayes said the AI narrative now faces three threats, including rising energy costs, the possibility of policy changes in the United States, and large upcoming IPOs from companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI, which could drain additional liquidity from markets.
“So that is what’s happened with all this liquidity. It’s gone to AI,” he said.
Importantly, Hayes does not expect Bitcoin to benefit immediately if AI stocks decline. He warned that if the AI trade begins to unwind, Bitcoin could initially fall alongside other risk assets rather than attract fresh capital.
Altcoins Continue to Outperform Bitcoin
Not everyone shares the cautious approach of Hayes.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that investor appetite for altcoins has changed drastically compared to six months ago. Despite Bitcoin remaining weak, many altcoins have already started posting yearly highs, while some have even reached new all-time highs.
According to Van de Poppe, these are not typical bear market signals and the different outlooks, including those from people like Hayes, highlight the current uncertainty.
He argued that strong price action across selected altcoins depicts that a new bull market may already be forming, with Bitcoin currently being the only major asset lagging behind. The contrasting view of Hayes also adds to the current debate among analysts.
Van de Poppe also says that if concerns surrounding Strategy’s STRC situation ease and liquidity returns to markets, altcoins could see even stronger breakouts in the months ahead.
Macro Conditions Could Favor Altcoins
On the other hand, analyst Peter from The House of Crypto explained that altcoins have gained roughly 32% against Bitcoin over the past year, a sharp contrast to the deep underperformance seen during the 2022 bear market. Interestingly, Hayes has also commented on these shifts in the past.
He noted that macro conditions are beginning to improve. Manufacturing activity, measured by the ISM index, is expanding again, while liquidity conditions are slowly easing after years of tightening. For investors following Hayes or other analysts, these changes could play a crucial role.
Based on these trends, Peter said Bitcoin may continue consolidating between $60,000 and $75,000 in the short term before moving higher later in the summer. Meanwhile, he expects many fundamentally strong altcoins to continue forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling that the broader altcoin cycle may already be underway and that market watchers such as Hayes are worth keeping an eye on.
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