Amid the recent crypto market downturn, prominent industry figures predict that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could reach the $100,000 mark by the end of the year.
This forecast comes from Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bitwise, and Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital. Their optimism stems from several key developments in the crypto market.
One-Off Sales vs. Long-Term Growth: Experts Weigh Bitcoin’s Future
The crypto market is currently grappling with several headwinds. One significant factor is the distribution of Bitcoin from the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange, which began in early July. Mt. Gox is expected to distribute over $8 billion in Bitcoin to creditors, with substantial amounts potentially hitting the market soon.
Similarly, the US government’s sale of Bitcoin seized from Silk Road, an infamous online black market, adds to the market’s current pressures. The US Marshals Service recently selected Coinbase Prime to manage these assets, signaling their imminent sale.
Adding to these liquidity shocks is the German government’s Bitcoin sales from various seizures. On-chain data shows that the German government continues its Bitcoin sell-offs today.
Arkham Intelligence data reveals that the wallet transferred 375 BTC each to several crypto exchanges, including Bitstamp, Kraken, and Coinbase. Additionally, it moved 250 BTC to the wallet ‘bc1qq’ and 1,000 BTC to the wallet ‘139Po.’ The German government’s wallet balance has decreased from approximately 24,000 BTC as of yesterday to 13,000 BTC at the time of writing.
Read more: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2024?
However, Matt Hougan sees these transactions as “one-off sales” that will eventually end. He believes that once the market absorbs these selling sprees, the long-term bullish factors will drive significant growth.
“As investors, we’re taught to look past nonrecurring events when we evaluate investments. They don’t speak to the investment’s long-term value. In other words, this too shall pass,” he affirmed.
Hougan highlights a notable shift in regulatory attitudes toward cryptocurrencies in Washington as one of the positive factors for Bitcoin in the long term. Additionally, the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) imminent approval of spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is another element likely to fuel the crypto market. He estimates these ETFs could attract $15 billion in net flows within their first 18 months on the market.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts over the next year could catalyze the crypto market. Lower interest rates generally bode well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
“Add strong growth in stablecoins, big developments in Layer 2s, institutions like BlackRock moving deeper into the space, and more, and it’s one heck of a setup. The right mix of developments in the second half of the year could easily drive Bitcoin to $100,000 and push Ethereum to new all-time highs,” Hougan added.
Anthony Scaramucci also shares this perspective in a recent interview with CNBC. He stresses the temporary nature of the current market pressures.
“We still love the fundamentals of Bitcoin long term. And I do think, as I said, it’ll be $170,000 post-halving, but I think it can get to $100,000 by year-end,” he said.
However, some industry participants believe such a development is unrealistic, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and other factors. Griffin Ardern, Head of Research at BloFin, told BeInCrypto the probability of breaking through $100,000 is still low.
“Unless there is a significant interest rate cut (more than two realized rate cuts this year), the scale of funds flowing into BTC ETFs and crypto markets further increases (perhaps more than $150b in cash is needed), and the speculators’ bullish leverage (similar to the situation in January and March) is superimposed, the price of BTC cannot break through $100k by the end of the year,” Ardern said.
Read more: What Is a Bitcoin ETF?
Despite Bitcoin’s price being below $60,000 for the past seven days, investors are showing confidence in the cryptocurrency. This resurgence is evident in the recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and Hong Kong.
Data from SoSo Value reveals that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have received $801.7 million in inflows from July 5 to July 10. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted 428.59 BTC in inflows, worth approximately $25 million at current market prices.
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