Crypto markets have been fairly stable amid wider market panic caused by US President Donald Trump’s “on-again, off-again” sweeping global tariffs, according to a New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) analyst.
“Despite the carnage in traditional financial markets, the crypto markets have been relatively orderly,” NYDIG global head of research Greg Cipolaro said in an April 11 note. “Historically, in broad risk-off moves, we tend to see stresses show up in crypto markets. We have yet to see that.”
Cipolaro said crypto perpetual futures rates have “been persistently positive,” with liquidations spiking on April 6 and 7 in the days after Trump first announced the tariffs on April 2 but only to a total of $480 million, which he added “was well below other notable liquidation events.”
He noted that the price of Tether (USDT), a US dollar-tracking stablecoin widely used token in crypto trading, was below $1 but had “not experienced a sharp decline.”
Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff regime on April 2 that lumped various levies on every country before pausing them for 90 days just hours after they came into effect on April 9 and instead charging a base tariff of 10%, besides China, which currently has tariffs of up to 145%.
Traditional and crypto markets tanked after Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, and many assets haven’t recovered to the same level as before their unveiling.
Stocks, bonds and foreign exchange volatility rates all rose after Trump’s tariffs announcement. Source: NYDIG
Over the weekend, the Trump administration caused more confusion with its tariffs, saying on April 13 that an April 11 decision to exempt many electronics from tariffs was temporary and they would still be hit with levies.
Bitcoin fares well, declining volatility to make it widely attractive
Cipolaro said that Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t escape the market volatility, “but at current prices has fared far better than many other asset classes.”
He added that Bitcoin’s volatility hasn’t risen to historic levels, unlike the traditional markets, and “has been relatively stable” despite instability instigated by the Trump administration.
“Perhaps investors are increasingly searching for stores of value not tied to sovereign countries and thus not affected by the trade turmoil.”
Bitcoin is down 22.5% from its mid-January peak of over $108,000 and has traded flat over the past 24 hours at $84,730, according to CoinGecko.
Cipolaro said the narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s volatility and other assets makes it “increasingly more appealing” to funds with risk parity portfolios — those that use risk to choose asset allocations.
He added that investors are likely reducing their risk exposure but “perhaps some reallocation of asset mix to Bitcoin is one of the reasons it has been more buoyant.”
Related: S&P 500 briefly sees ‘Bitcoin-level’ volatility amid Trump tariff war
“Risk parity funds allocating to Bitcoin can help dampen its volatility — making the asset more attractive and potentially reinforcing a virtuous cycle of increased adoption and stability,” Cipolaro said.
However, YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha told Cointelegraph in an April 12 note that despite a wider market rebound, “technical indicators are painting a concerning picture.”
He said a “death cross,” when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, is potentially forming on Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Lienkha said the pattern is “generally considered a bearish signal for the medium term, suggesting that markets may struggle to sustain upward momentum without a clear catalyst or a stream of positive macroeconomic developments.”
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