Critical Bitcoin Metric Just Hit Its Lowest Level Since the FTX Collapse

A key technical metric measuring Bitcoin’s value is at its lowest level since the bear market in 2022.

Bitcoin’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) data, which indicates how overvalued or undervalued the asset is relative to its normal “zero-sum game,” is at the same level as late 2022, right after the FTX collapse, Santiment reported on Thursday.

When the 365-day MVRV was oversold and severely negative following the FTX collapse, Bitcoin prices climbed 67% in the following three months, it added.

“This is typical when average returns are significantly below the average value for what is historically expected,” it stated.

However, macroeconomic news and “polarized opinions about Strategy’s aggressive accumulation” have been changing the landscape of cryptocurrency, noted the analysts who concluded that a big move may be ahead.

“When this powerful indicator reveals a divergence we haven’t seen in over 3 years, pay attention.”

A 67% gain from current prices would send BTC back to $116,000, but that is highly unlikely in the current bear market. In fact, analysts believe that there will be months of consolidation before a potential major move in the price.

Early Signs of Stabilization

Glassnode also leaned slightly bullish in its weekly on-chain report, stating “Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers.”

BTC has been consolidating between $63,000 and $72,500 for over a month, repeatedly failing to hold above $70,000, it noted, adding that the price is sitting between two key levels: the Realized Price at $54,400 as support and the “True Market Mean” which is serving as resistance at $78,400.

There are also some stabilizing signals, including positive inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs, spot market buyers beginning to absorb selling pressure, perpetual futures funding turning negative, and options market implied volatility easing, suggesting reduced immediate fear.

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“The market appears to be shifting from forced deleveraging toward early stabilisation, with scope for recovery if spot demand continues to build.”

Resilient in the Face of War

Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand recovers. Negative funding points to crowded shorts, while options vol is easing.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇https://t.co/jPJp9MbNJp pic.twitter.com/jUHoVhTjXo

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 11, 2026

Crypto Market Outlook

Total market capitalization is flat on the day, at the same level as this time yesterday, $2.45 trillion.

Bitcoin topped $71,000 again in late trading in the US, but tanked in the morning Asian session back to $69,400, mirroring yesterday’s trading pattern.

Ether prices are largely unchanged, hovering just above $2,000, while the altcoins remain dormant.

“Crypto sentiment remains weak, and trading volumes are near their lows,” reported 10x Research on Thursday.