Bitcoin is under renewed selling pressure, and one chart analyst says the coming weeks could determine whether this bear market is entering its final stage or has further to fall.
Bitcoin was rejected from resistance earlier this month and has since pulled back. Bitcoin is testing structural support near $63,760 after being rejected in July, with price now approaching a wider zone the analyst is watching closely.
The analyst is watching a support zone between $59,356 and $62,492 very closely, saying a failure to hold that range could signal the next leg lower is already underway.
If that happens, the analyst outlines a more bearish scenario where Bitcoin continues declining toward $44,000, and potentially further. A deeper bearish scenario could push Bitcoin toward $44,000 or even lower still, with a possible target near $39,000 later this year if that path plays out.
Pattern Worth Watching
Alongside that bearish case, the analyst opened up about a different framework. A classic accumulation pattern first documented by market analyst Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900s. Wyckoff spent decades studying how large investors quietly build positions during periods when sentiment is at its worst and most retail interest has faded.
The pattern typically unfolds in five phases. An initial downtrend gives way to a long, boring consolidation range where price chops sideways for months while negative headlines dominate. That’s often followed by a sharp final flush below prior support, one designed to trigger stop losses and force out remaining sellers, before price quickly reclaims that zone on lighter volume. If that reclaim holds, it can mark the actual low, setting up a slow rally phase followed by a genuine breakout on strong volume.
The analyst says Bitcoin’s current price action lines up reasonably well with this framework so far, and that if the pattern continues to play out, Bitcoin might only need to dip modestly into the low to mid $50,000s before finding real buying interest, a considerably shallower move than the deeper bearish scenario.
Why the 200 Week Average Matters
One additional data point stands out: Bitcoin has already fallen 55% from its recent all time high. Historically, the 200 week moving average has marked the general area where past bear market lows have formed, and Bitcoin’s current price sits close to that level right now.
The analyst warned that Bitcoin could still fall another 30% before this cycle’s low is fully in place, but added that even in that scenario, the remaining decline could unfold within just the next two to three months, making this potentially the shortest stretch of pain left in the broader downtrend.
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