Key takeaways
Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while whale wallets continued accumulating tokens.
Wallets holding 100,000 to 100 million ADA have reached their highest holdings since February 2023, while smaller investors have reduced exposure.
The upcoming van Rossem hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could act as a catalyst for ADA’s next move.
Cardano (ADA) edged lower on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure the previous session.
Despite the pullback, on-chain and derivatives data indicate that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of a key network upgrade.
The combination of growing whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and the upcoming van Rossem hard fork has increased expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.
Whales continue accumulating ADA
On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear divergence between large and small Cardano holders.
Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively own more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.
In contrast, wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by roughly 0.7% over the past four months.
The trend suggests institutional investors and high-net-worth holders continue accumulating Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, sustained whale accumulation has often preceded periods of stronger price performance.
Cardano’s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization supporting the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday following governance ratification earlier this week.
The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality alongside protocol enhancements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.
The hard fork could provide a near-term catalyst by strengthening Cardano’s ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.
Futures market activity also points to strengthening investor confidence.
According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures Open Interest (OI) has increased from approximately $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.
Rising Open Interest alongside stabilizing prices generally indicates that fresh capital is entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.
Meanwhile, ADA’s funding rate has turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, suggesting traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.
Positive funding rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and growing expectations for higher prices.
Cardano price forecast: ADA still faces major resistance
Despite improving fundamentals, Cardano remains technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several major moving averages, preserving the broader bearish market structure.
Cardano remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.179, the 100-day EMA ($0.208), and the 200-day EMA ($0.276)
The token is also trading beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below the trendline resistance near $0.207.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, indicating neutral momentum without signaling either overbought or oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, suggesting bearish momentum is easing, although buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a sustained trend reversal.
If bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207–$0.208 (Trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
A successful break above the $0.207–$0.208 region would significantly improve Cardano’s medium-term outlook.
On the downside, traders should watch the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could see ADA retest the June 25 swing low of $0.1382.
Cardano’s improving fundamentals are beginning to contrast with its still-cautious technical picture. Whale accumulation, rising Open Interest, and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while the upcoming van Rossem hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.
