ADA traded near $0.26 as bulls looked to break above a key resistance line.
Open interest hovered around $414 million, sharply down over the past month.
ADA price could drop to $0.22 or lower if bears strengthen.
Cardano’s ADA remains under pressure as buyers struggle to regain momentum, with the token retreating from a key technical resistance level near $0.26.
The cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% year to date.
The decline has also pushed Cardano out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, after Hyperliquid (HYPE) climbed to around $38 and moved into the 10th position on CoinMarketCap.
As of March 12, 2026, Hyperliquid’s market capitalisation stood at about $9.6 billion, slightly ahead of Cardano’s $9.4 billion.
The ranking shift could reverse if a potential recovery driven by bullish network-related developments supports ADA’s price.
Otherwise, the prevailing downtrend could push the altcoin toward new multi-month lows.
Cardano open interest falls to $414 million
Cardano’s ADA has trended lower since reaching a peak of $1.01 in August 2025, with derivatives market data reflecting the weakening momentum.
Over the past several months, Cardano’s open interest has declined sharply from about $1.87 billion when the token rallied above $1.
By October 2025, open interest in outstanding ADA futures contracts had fallen to roughly $1.5 billion, before dropping further to around $842 million by mid-January 2026.
The metric now stands at approximately $414 million as of March 12, 2026.
Open interest typically falls as leveraged positions unwind, indicating reduced participation from speculative traders.
The decline of more than 50% from January levels suggests that confidence in ADA’s near-term price outlook has weakened, aligning with the token’s broader bearish trend.
ADA price outlook: bulls face downtrend risk
Cardano price hovers near the resistance line of a parallel channel formed since Feb. 26.
Prices slipped below $0.27 earlier this month amid comments from founder Charles Hoskinson.
From a technical analysis point of view, a breakout looks likely as bulls hold onto support near the trendline.
However, sellers have shown conviction, keeping ADA within a channel formation in place since October 2025.
In terms of the short-term outlook, momentum indicators on the daily chart reinforce the downward risk.
As can be seen below, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals weakness under the 50 mark, while the MACD also suggests buyers’ indecision could play into bears’ hands.
Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day SMAs indicate downward strength.
Cardano’s price is down more than 20% YTD and 70% in the past six months.
This means that failure to strengthen its recovery could risk ADA plunging to year-to-date lows of $0.22.
If price breaks below this level, ADA could face a deeper bearish setup.
However, if gains across crypto and network-related developments boost a fresh uptick, it could invalidate this outlook.
Breaking above the downtrend line and closing above $0.28 would embolden buyers, with key targets at $0.30 and $0.33.
Even then, bulls may need to reclaim $0.45 as support to retake control.
