Rongchai Wang
Feb 02, 2026 19:09
Bitcoin crashes below November lows with 14-day RSI in oversold territory. Glassnode data shows sustained sell pressure across spot, derivatives, and ETF markets.
Bitcoin has crashed through a critical support level, dropping to $74,000 after failing to hold November’s lows—a region that previously marked the floor before BTC’s surge toward $100,000. The breakdown has pushed the 14-day RSI into deeply oversold territory, a condition not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
According to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report published February 2, the selling isn’t just technical. It’s structural.
Spot Markets Show Zero Conviction
Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has broken to new lows, confirming what traders suspected: there’s no meaningful buying beneath the surface. Volume has spiked, but Glassnode characterizes it as “reactive” rather than constructive—the kind of churn you see during capitulation, not accumulation.
“Spot conditions remain weak,” the report states, noting that even as trade volume increases, “overall positioning still points to ongoing distribution pressure.”
ETF outflows have moderated slightly, but that’s cold comfort. The broader picture shows institutional money rotating out, not in. With Michael Saylor’s Strategy now underwater on its Bitcoin stack—a development confirmed February 1—the narrative around corporate Bitcoin adoption has taken a hit.
Derivatives Traders Aren’t Buying the Dip Either
Futures open interest has declined, suggesting leveraged longs are unwinding rather than adding. Funding rates have cooled as appetite for long exposure fades. More telling: Perpetual CVD has deteriorated further, with Glassnode flagging “aggressive sell pressure from leveraged traders.”
Options markets tell a similar story. Open interest has contracted below its lower band as traders close positions and step aside. The volatility spread has compressed—meaning the fear premium that typically accompanies crashes is already fading. Traders aren’t panicking; they’ve already panicked.
On-Chain Signals Flash Red
The blockchain itself confirms the stress. Active addresses and fee volumes have ticked up modestly, but transfer volume remains depressed. Realised cap continues contracting, signaling weak capital inflows at a time when BTC desperately needs fresh buyers.
Profitability metrics have deteriorated sharply. Supply in profit has fallen while unrealised losses deepen. Realised losses—coins moving at prices below their purchase cost—continue to dominate. This is textbook capitulation behavior.
What Happens at $74K?
The $74,000 level now represents a critical test. For context, Bitcoin touched $67,065 in early November 2024 before rallying to nearly $100,000 by month’s end. That rally was fueled by post-election optimism around crypto-friendly policies. Those expectations haven’t materialized, and now price is revisiting levels from before the hype began.
BTC traded at approximately $79,000 as of February 2, suggesting a modest bounce from the $74,000 low—but Glassnode’s assessment remains cautious. “Near-term stabilisation likely depends on sell pressure exhausting and demand returning to defend the $74K region,” the report concludes.
With Bitcoin now fallen out of the global top 10 assets by market cap—dropping below Tesla—the next few weeks will determine whether this is a washout bottom or just another leg down.
Image source: Shutterstock
