Bitcoin (BTC) is turning back the clock this week as tariff mayhem drags BTC price action toward 2021.
Bitcoin is giving up bull market support lines left and right as a new “death cross” completes on the BTC/USD daily chart.
CPI week is firmly overshadowed by US trade tariffs and their increasingly global impact on stock markets.
Both crypto and TradFi market participants are drawing comparisons to “Black Monday” 1987 and the COVID-19 cross-market crash.
Bitcoin’s speculative investor base is firmly out of pocket and likely increasingly tempted to panic sell.
Sentiment everywhere is nonexistent, with the TradFi Fear & Greed Index recording its lowest score in history.
BTC price “death cross” brings 2021 highs into play
Bitcoin risks falling below its old all-time highs from March 2024 next, Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
After slipping below $75,000 for the first time since November, BTC/USD is rapidly reawakening long forgotten bull market support lines. These include $69,000, a level that first appeared in 2021.
The dive, which came as a copycat move several days after stock markets began to suffer major losses, caught many by surprise.
Is our uncorrelated hedge in the room right now?
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 6, 2025
“This is $BTC’s last chance to maintain its macro uptrend structure,” popular analyst Kevin Svenson summarized in a warning on X.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Kevin Svenson/X
Among the trend lines now lost as support is the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at around $77,000.
In an X thread on the coming week, popular trader CrypNuevo described price violating that level as the “only short triggerr I’ll be paying attention to.”
“If we drop below support and get back above it, then I’ll consider this as a deviation and that will be my long trigger fo a push up back to $87k,” he explained.
BTC/USDT 1-week chart with 50EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile flagged a telltale “death cross” on daily timeframes. This typical bearish signal involves the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below its 200-day equivalent.
“The momentum carrying through that Death Cross, puts BTC at a critical macro support test,” it told X followers.
“Stay tuned…”
BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50, 200 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
CPI week meets emergency rate cuts
Like last week, US trade tariffs are the major talking point across financial markets worldwide.
The impact of measures announced last week continues to be felt, as downside momentum on risk assets now becomes fueled by the prospect of more tariffs set for release on April 9.
Speaking to mainstream media over the weekend, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the US government would go ahead with the measures without delay.
“The tariffs are coming,” he told CBS News.
With sentiment diving and panic setting in among market participants from trading desks to hedge funds, little attention is being paid to the week’s other potential volatility catalysts.
These will come in the form of US inflation data, itself a key topic as tariffs risk causing unexpected price growth.
The March prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due on April 10 and 11, respectively.
Previously, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that while tariffs would have a palpable effect on the US inflation battle, it would be difficult to assess this accurately in advance.
“As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clear, we will have a better sense of the implications for the economy and for monetary policy,” he subsequently said during a speech last week.
Fed target rate probability comparison for May FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
Market expectations of the Fed easing policy to compensate for the tariffs are clearly reflected in interest rate forecasts.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows that consensus favors a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s May meeting — sooner than the June deadline assumed until this weekend.
In informal circles, including social media and prediction platforms such as Polymarket, bets of an “emergency” rate cut coming sooner are rising rapidly.
“The Federal Reserve may have to make an emergency rate cut soon,” Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano predicted at the weekend.
“Inflation has fallen to the lowest levels since 2020. If this continues, it will be a BIG problem.”
Odds for 2025 Fed rate cut as of April 7 (screenshot). Source: Polymarket
“Black Monday” 1987 or COVID-19 repeat?
In the short term, the “effects” of tariffs are feared to include a marketwide crash similar to “Black Monday” in 1987.
As Cointelegraph reported, market responses to the first round of reciprocal tariffs laid the foundations for turmoil at the upcoming Wall Street open.
A 10% dip in two consecutive days has only happened for the fourth time in history.
October 1987.October 2008.March 2020.April 2025.
In 1987 & 2020, it marked the bottom.In 2008, it took one more month to mark the bottom.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 6, 2025
For trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, crypto’s Black Monday moment is already here.
“I think we’ll see a rollercoaster 1-2 weeks in which we’re having a test of the lows for Bitcoin. It can go as deep as $70K from here,” he warned X followers on April 7.
Van de Poppe saw an emergency Fed rate cut as the only logical escape path for stemming the risk-asset bleed.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter meanwhile pointed to heavy losses on both Chinese and Japanese stocks during the week’s first Asia trading session.
“We are seeing the market’s first circuit breakers since March 2020,” it reported.
Kobeissi described market sentiment as “polarized,” drawing multiple comparisons to the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 and beyond.
“This is by far the most panic we have seen in the market since March 2020. In fact, we may be nearing investor panic levels ABOVE March 2020,” it added.
“It’s currently a widespread rush to the exit for investors.”
Bitcoin’s new hodler losses multiply
On Bitcoin, the investor cohort likely first to capitulate are short-term holders (STHs) — the market’s more speculative entities with a buy-in date within the last six months.
As Cointelegraph reported, these investors are highly sensitive to BTC price volatility, and that their panic selling creates a vicious circle for the market.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant now shows that the STH cohort is falling increasingly into the red.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks STH coins moving in profit or loss, is currently below breakeven.
“When STH-SOPR falls below 1.0, it reflects that short-term investors are realizing losses — a classic signal of capitulation,” CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent noted in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.
“Looking back at 2024, major price corrections were accompanied by sharp drops in STH-SOPR, often reaching or falling below the -2 standard deviation band. These moments — notably in May, July, and August — aligned with periods of panic selling among short-term market participants.”
Bitcoin STH-SOPR chart. Source: CryptoQuant
Below $80,000, BTC/USD is now comfortably under the aggregate cost basis for STH investors, CryptoQuant confirms.
Bitcoin’s total aggregate cost basis, which includes long-term holders, currently sits at $43,000.
Bitcoin STH cost bases. Source: CryptoQuant
Sentiment eclipses bearish records
In a sobering yet arguably bizarre move, the extent of bearish sentiment on traditional markets, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has fallen to extremes.
Related: Bitcoin crash risk to $70K in 10 days increasing — Analyst says it’s BTC’s ‘practical bottom’
The latest data from the Index, which uses a basket of factors to compute the market mood, gives a reading of just 4/100.
“It’s never been this low: not in COVID, not after FTX collapse,” popular crypto commentator Atlas noted.
Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: CNN
Crypto continues to weather the storm somewhat better, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 23/100 on April 7.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Beyond the panic, some voices are cautiously hinting that now is an ideal moment to “buy the dip” — whether on stocks or crypto.
“This doesn’t necessarily mean the absolute bottom is in, but is generally at least a local opportunity,” the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, argued in an X thread.
Edwards tallied up both bullish and bearish arguments, and concluded that much risk remained, especially to Bitcoin’s bull market.
“To be fair Bitcoin did very well last week, but has played catch up (to the downside) over the weekend. Pending some large unforeseen news, it’s going to be hard for Bitcoin to fight a correlation=1 event across risk assets, we saw something similar in early 2020,” he commented.
“That said, there is historically significant relative strength here to note. We can likely expect Bitcoin to rally the hardest off the bottom, whereever and whenever that is.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
