Key Takeaways
Vaneck’s Matthew Sigel says 8 of 12 bitcoin capitulation signals fired as of August 18.Long-term holders sold 356,000 BTC in 30 days, dropping their supply share below 60%.Vaneck projects a possible accumulation phase between September and November 2026.
What Vaneck’s Latest Report Found
Asset manager Vaneck published its mid-August Bitcoin Chaincheck report, authored by Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, arguing that bitcoin is showing “what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation” and may be “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.”
Bitcoin was trading around $64,500 at the time of the report, having spent most of the past two months range-bound between $58,000 and $66,500, a band that sits 48% below the cryptocurrency’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,300.
The report tracks 12 separate capitulation indicators, onchain and market-based metrics that historically cluster together near cycle bottoms, and found that 8 of them were flashing as of the report’s publication. All 12 had touched capitulation territory at some point over the prior three months, suggesting the current downturn has been broad rather than concentrated in a single corner of the market.
Long-Term Holders Are Finally Selling
The most striking data point in Vaneck’s report is what long-term holders (i.e. wallets that have held bitcoin for 155 days or longer) have done in the past month. They shed 356,000 BTC over 30 days, pushing their share of total circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months, even as their absolute holdings remain substantial at roughly 11.84 million BTC.
Long-term holder selling near the later stages of a drawdown is a pattern Vaneck and other analysts have flagged in prior cycles, since it typically reflects capitulation among investors who had been holding through the decline rather than fresh short-term speculation.
Lastly, Vaneck analysts noted that bitcoin is now roughly 11 months into its correction from the early October 2025 peak. Looking back at the cryptocurrency’s three previous bear markets, the firm calculated an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, which would put a potential turning point somewhere between September and November of this year if the current cycle follows historical form.
The Caveat Vaneck Wants Investors to Hear
Vaneck was careful to temper the bullish read, noting that prior periods where 8 to 12 of its signals fired simultaneously have historically produced average 90-day and 180-day forward returns that came in below bitcoin’s typical baseline performance, meaning capitulation signals are not a reliable short-term timing tool. On a longer horizon, though, Vaneck said forward one-year returns from buying near capitulation zones have tended to exceed typical price action in prior cycles, albeit based on a small sample size given bitcoin’s relatively short trading history.
This is not the first time Sigel’s team has staked out a bullish long-term view mid-drawdown. Vaneck has previously set a $180,000 bitcoin price target and argued the asset was showing strength even as broader liquidity conditions shifted, a stance the firm has largely maintained through 2026’s volatility.
