Bitcoin (BTC) approached intraday highs ahead of Monday’s Wall Street open, with $60,000 holding as key support.
Key points:
Bitcoin avoids another retest of $60,000 as Wall Street returns, but bear-market standards call for lower.A rebound to $64,000 is being watched for signs that worse is yet to come.Macro headwinds multiply as the Japanese yen reenters the picture.
Bitcoin price decides on ranging versus breakdown
Data from TradingView showed BTC price selling pressure easing after the weekly close — Bitcoin’s lowest since October 2024.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Attention focused on the $60,000 mark amid a broad lack of bullish sentiment on both shorter and longer time frames.
“Holding the $60K low and I will just assume this is a range for now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades forecast in his latest analysis on X.
“I can easily see us trade in this $60K-$80K region for quite a while. Just need to not turn bearish at the range low and not get too excited at the range high region.”
BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s 200-day simple moving average (SMA) now acting as low-time-frame resistance.
Among those seeing bearish continuation was trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who told X followers to watch for a failed rebound and subsequent weakening of support at $60,000.
“Bitcoin has now tagged the 200-week SMA for the first time in this Bear Cycle,” he added about another important bear-market feature late last week.
“Deviating below it has historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.”
BTC/USD two-week chart with 200-week SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin analysis says macro “tapping it on the shoulder”
On the macro front, analysis pointed to several key headwinds complicating the picture for crypto and risk assets.
Related: BTC price bottom not due until Q4? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
These were interest-rate plan expectations from the US Federal Reserve, the Japanese yen passing 160 per dollar and the US-Iran war.
“Taken together, these are not exactly ideal conditions for high-beta assets,” trading resource QCP Capital wrote in its latest Market Color bulletin.
“BTC is effectively being asked to perform while oil, rates, FX and geopolitics are all tapping it on the shoulder.”
USD/JPY one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
QCP argued that given Asia equities weakness on Monday, Bitcoin’s next moves would be telling when it comes to its recent divergence from stocks.
“If crypto can hold while equities digest the AI-led correction, the market may start to rebuild a cleaner standalone narrative. If not, the apparent decoupling may prove to be less independence and more delayed reaction,” it suggested.
