Key takeaways
Bitcoin is holding near $69K as Iran-related geopolitical tensions keep markets cautious.
Rising oil prices and inflation concerns are limiting upside, but strong ETF inflows and institutional support are helping BTC stay resilient.
Bitcoin is trading sideways near the $69,000 mark as investors remain cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions tied to the conflict in Iran.
The leading cryptocurrency briefly pushed above $70,000 on Monday—its first move past that level since March—but failed to sustain momentum.
Geopolitics dominate market sentiment
The ongoing situation in Iran continues to shape global risk appetite. U.S. President Donald Trump has warned of severe consequences if a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not reached by the Tuesday 20:00 ET deadline.
Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day ceasefire, instead calling for a permanent end to hostilities alongside the removal of sanctions.
For Bitcoin, this macro backdrop is significant—higher oil prices tend to support inflation, push Treasury yields higher, and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Despite the current situation, Bitcoin has held up better than some traditional markets. While it has not staged a breakout, its ability to maintain levels above $65,000 suggests underlying support from positioning and institutional demand.
Meanwhile, Gold has lost more than 10% of its value as investors scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a key factor. After four consecutive months of outflows, March saw $1.2 billion in net inflows. Momentum has continued into April, with spot ETFs recording $471.3 million in inflows in a single day—the largest since February.
These inflows have helped keep Bitcoin’s price, although resistance near $76,000 continues to cap upside.
For Bitcoin to break higher, a clear catalyst is likely required. A confirmed ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran could be pivotal, particularly if it drives oil prices below $100 per barrel and alleviates inflation concerns.
Technical forecast: Bitcoin eyes the $70k resistance once again
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient as Bitcoin continues to defend the $65,000 support level.
The price has recovered from this low and is testing resistance around 69k, the 50-day EMA, and the lower band of the rising channel.
The RSI of 61 on the 4-hour chart is above the neutral level, indicating a growing bullish bias. The MACD lines are also above the zero line, adding further confluence to the bullish narrative.
Buyers will need to rise above $69,000 to bring $74,000 into focus, the mid-point of the rising channel and the falling trendline resistance dating back to October’s $126,000 record high.
A surge above the $74,000 resistance level would allow BTC to test the March high of $76,000 in the near term.
However, failure to rally higher would see the bears push the price towards the $65,000 support level once again.
