Key takeaways
Bitcoin’s four-hour chart is forming a potential rounded-top pattern after its rally from $63,000.
The $76,000–$76,300 region serves as the pattern’s critical neckline and support zone.
A decisive breakdown could produce a technical downside target near $70,900–$71,000.
Bitcoin could decline toward $71,000 if a potential rounded-top pattern on its four-hour chart confirms with a decisive breakdown below the $76,000 support level.
BTC rallied from approximately $63,000 in mid-August before reaching the $80,000–$81,500 region.
However, bullish momentum has since weakened, with the price gradually curving lower and forming the dome-like structure associated with a rounded top.
Weak spot-market demand is adding to the bearish risk, even as demand for Bitcoin perpetual futures remains positive.
Bitcoin rounded top places $71,000 in focus
Bitcoin’s potential rounded top has developed following its strong recovery from the August lows.
The cryptocurrency was trading near $76,870 on Monday, September 15, holding above an important support zone between $76,000 and $76,300. This area effectively represents the neckline of the bearish chart formation.
A decisive four-hour candle close below the zone could confirm the pattern and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
The distance between the pattern’s peak and neckline is approximately $5,000 to $5,300. Subtracting this range from a possible breakdown near $76,000 produces a downside target between $70,900 and $71,000.
Technical indicators show market indecision
Bitcoin’s four-hour Relative Strength Index stood near 54.5, reflecting broadly neutral momentum rather than strongly overbought or oversold conditions.
BTC was also trading around its 20-period, 50-period, and 100-period exponential moving averages. The clustering of these indicators highlights the continuing struggle between buyers and sellers.
A sustained recovery above the $79,500–$80,000 range would weaken the rounded-top scenario. A breakout above the recent highs near $81,500 would largely invalidate the bearish formation and restore the case for further gains. Until then, the $76,000 support remains the most important level to monitor.
Bitcoin’s underlying demand profile provides limited support for the bullish outlook. CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand-growth data shows that demand in the perpetual futures market remained positive during September. Spot demand, however, stayed negative.
Consequently, Bitcoin’s overall demand remained below zero despite continued activity from derivatives traders.
The divergence suggests that leveraged futures positions are driving much of the recent buying pressure rather than investors accumulating BTC directly through the spot market.
Futures-led demand makes BTC vulnerable
A rally driven primarily by derivatives can be more fragile than one supported by strong spot buying.
Futures demand can disappear quickly when traders close leveraged positions or face liquidations during a price decline. This can accelerate selling and increase volatility if Bitcoin breaks below an important support level.
A somewhat similar divergence developed in January and February 2026, when futures demand briefly recovered before overall demand and Bitcoin’s price weakened.
The current structure does not guarantee the same result. However, without a recovery in spot demand, a confirmed breakdown below $76,000 would make the rounded-top target near $71,000 increasingly relevant.
