Key takeaways
Bitcoin remains vulnerable as hawkish Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent ETF demand continue to dampen investor sentiment.
With BTC trading below key moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the U.S. Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.
The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading across financial markets after the Fed signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.
Federal Reserve maintains rates but adopts hawkish tone
The U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.
While the decision itself was widely expected, markets were focused on the Fed’s forward guidance and updated economic projections.
The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled support for maintaining higher rates for longer. Policymakers now project the federal funds rate to end the year at 3.8%, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.
The revised outlook prompted traders to increase expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets now pricing in nearly an 85% probability of a rate hike in December.
As a result, U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustained recovery.
According to CoinGlass data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, following:
The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Should ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.
Bitcoin price outlook: Relief bounce shows signs of weakness
Recent price action indicates that Bitcoin’s rebound from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller exhaustion than by renewed buying demand.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a bearish short-term structure and remains below several key moving averages.
BTC is currently trading below the 50-day EMA at $70,042, the 100-day EMA at $72,839, and the 200-day EMA at $78,174.
The failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights persistent overhead selling pressure.
Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance zone.
Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below 50, indicating ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that recent rebounds may be corrective moves within a broader bearish trend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
If Bitcoin attempts a rebound, traders will likely focus on several major resistance zones. The first major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day EMA
A move above these levels would be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.
