James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, said Bitcoin may have already established its cycle bottom after undergoing two capitulation events, arguing that shifts in holder behavior indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record of just over $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing, nearly 39% below its peak. Some traders expect BTC to establish another low in October 2026 based on its historical four-year cycle. In July, analyst Benjamin Cowen said that cycle-duration data and the US midterm-election calendar pointed toward a fourth-quarter bottoming window.
In an interview on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis show, Check described Bitcoin’s February decline toward $60,000 as a “price-pain capitulation,” when investors who bought near the top sold at substantial losses. He identified a second “time-pain capitulation” around $58,000 in June and July, following months of sideways price action that caused holders to question whether Bitcoin would recover.
“What’s the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s the six months that separated them. That’s the actual difference.” His assessment challenges expectations of an October low, suggesting the capitulation signals associated with a bear-market bottom appeared months earlier.
Check said approximately $300 billion in Bitcoin cost basis was concentrated between $58,000 and $70,000, while about 4 million BTC moved from an unrealized loss into profit during the subsequent recovery. He added that long-term holders now control roughly 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are more likely to wait for substantially higher prices than sell after a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin four-year cycle misleads traders
Check said anchoring to the four-year cycle is a mistake because there is no mechanical reason for it to repeat.
“Ask, ‘Well, now what do I do?’ long before your compass breaks,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s like a broken clock. It’s right twice a day. Just assume it’s broken and find something better.”
Check said previous cycle dates do not explain why investors capitulate. He said traders should instead examine cost basis, unrealized and realized losses, holder profitability and whether experienced investors are accumulating or distributing their coins.
He said that calendar dates should only provide context after evidence of market exhaustion or capitulation emerges. “Look for the evidence, not the calendar,” Check said.
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Grayscale researcher also sees $58,000 bottom
Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl reached a similar conclusion in a recent interview on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets. “I’m willing to stick my neck out and make a guess that prices bottomed back at $58,000 at the end of June,” Pandl told Cointelegraph.
Pandl said the downturn produced less despair than previous Bitcoin bear markets but followed a bull market that also generated less euphoria, potentially resulting in a more contained decline.
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s ability to withstand adverse developments without continuing to fall. “When price in an asset class, whether it’s crypto or anything else, stops going down on bad news, that’s usually a sign that it’s oversold,” Pandl said.
Onchain evidence remains mixed. HODL Waves data showed that Bitcoin supply held for one to seven days rose only from 1.97% on July 1 to 2.35% on July 5, which analyst Willy Woo interpreted as an unusually muted response from dip-buyers.
However, CryptoQuant data showed that short-term holders had remained partially profitable for 30 consecutive days, the longest such stretch of 2026 and a pattern the analytics firm said has characterized previous Bitcoin market recoveries.
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