Bitcoin (BTC) has just gone through its worst capitulation levels since 2014, but charts are showing signs of a possible imminent recovery in upcoming weeks/months.
Source: CryptoChan
In a recent publication, lead investment manager VanEck reported that BTC had already fired 8 out of 12 capitulation signals. Among these are the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, the 49% drawdown from all-time high prices, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and percentage supply in profit.
Source: Artemis XYZ
At some point in the last 3 months, the flagship cryptocurrency had fired all 12 signals, indicating a likely bottoming out in preparation for a full-on rally.
Bitcoin breaks above consolidation and taps $69K
At writing time, BTC had broken above its months-long consolidation between $62K and $64K, gained 7.02%, and reached a price of $69,081.
Its MVRV Z-score read 0.53, indicating entry into a neutral zone where price is well supported by actual buyer cost basis.
Additionally, the coin’s apparent demand has turned positive for the first time since February 2026, reaching roughly +25,000 BTC. This indicates an exhaustion in selling pressure and is historically associated with an 18.1% median gain ($81,489) over 60 days at a 78% win rate.
Further analysis
Today, Bitcoin flipped its multi-month upper resistance into a new support level when its price rose above $65,000.
The next major resistance lies at $71,300 – $71,500, closely aligned with its 200-day moving average. After that would be the macro hurdle level at $75,000 – $76,638. Crossing this would signal a definitive end to the macro bearish trend. Supporting this would be a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, indicating bulls overtaking bears in the market.
Source: TradingView
Core Market Drivers
Several events have contributed to the recent pump and may support future positive price movements. The first is the US bond buyback operation, which has weakened the dollar and reduced its bond yield, effectively rerouting investor interest to risky assets like Bitcoin.
Another is institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin ETFs returning to consecutive daily net inflows.
A third is the September CLARITY Act vote, an event that will be the decisive factor for long-term institutional sentiment.
Other factors that would affect BTC price would be Fed interest rate changes and developments in the Middle East conflict.
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