Rising prices to $126K versus negative CVD suggest the rally was driven by leveraged derivatives, not spot demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) is confronting a significant wave of selling pressure, with a key derivatives metric on the Binance exchange approaching a two-year low.
According to analysts, this development points to a market environment dominated by sellers, raising concerns about the potential for continued price instability and a drawn-out period of adjustment.
A Critical Divergence Unravels
New data from Arab Chain posted earlier today shows Binance’s CVD hovering near –$94.8 billion, one of its weakest levels since 2023. The indicator tracks the difference between buy and sell volume, and such a steep negative value means that sell orders have consistently outweighed buys over an extended period.
Arab Chain analysts pointed out that this imbalance has been in place since early 2024, even as Bitcoin climbed to near-record levels around $125,000 before sliding toward $80,800. They said that the divergence between rising prices and weakening CVD is a signal that much of the rally was built on leveraged derivatives rather than solid spot demand.
This view fits neatly with on-chain behavior from long-term holders (LTHs) captured by Axel Adler Jr. He highlighted that LTH supply has dropped from a peak of 15.75 million BTC to 13.6 million BTC, the lowest level since the bull cycle began.
Between November 11 and 25, this group offloaded more than 803,000 BTC, averaging over 53,000 BTC sold per day, which is classic distribution at elevated prices. Their 30-day Net Position Change has turned as negative as previous major profit-taking waves in March and October 2024, both of which came before sharp pullbacks.
At the same time, Merlijn The Trader noted today that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has dropped below a key support level that held every major rally of this cycle, warning that the “floor is gone” and recalling a prior 42% slide after a similar breakdown.
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Price Stagnation
At the market, Bitcoin has been flat in the last 24 hours, and is currently trading at around $87,500 per CoinGecko. However, it is down about 4% over the previous seven days and 15% in the past two weeks.
The picture is the same across even longer timeframes, with the OG crypto shedding nearly 25% of its value in the past month, and is over 7% lower than where it was around the same time last year.
That drawdown puts BTC nearly 25% lower than its October 6 all-time high, when it went past $126,000, and, as observed by Adler, sits against a broader backdrop of sideways trading and heavy liquidations.
Additionally, recent CryptoQuant analysis showed that Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio has dropped back toward zero, a zone previously seen in 2019, 2020, and 2022 before new multi-month trends formed.
For risk-aware investors, that backdrop offers a more attractive long-term entry window, even as experts warned that whales are still trimming holdings and that further wicks into the $70,000–$80,000 range remain possible.
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