Analysts see a green 2026 as likely if BTC secures strong monthly closes above $105K and holds $90K support.
Bitcoin’s price climbed above $97,000 on January 14, reaching its highest point since November.
The move happened as a well-known historical price pattern showed a clear deviation, leading analysts to debate whether the market’s fundamental structure is changing.
A Deviation From Historical Rhythm
According to analyst Egrag Crypto, for over a decade, Bitcoin’s yearly price candles followed a simple, repeating sequence: three consecutive green (up) years followed by a single red (down) year. This pattern matched up with the four-year halving cycle, where the year after a halving was typically bullish.
Egrag noted that this cycle has already broken that rhythm. The sequence from 2023 to 2025 was Green, Green, Red, deviating from the expected Green, Green, Green, Red pattern of past cycles. The market watcher assigned a 55% to 65% probability that 2026 ends green, framing 2025’s red candle as a cooling phase instead of a broader turn.
That view hinges on confirmation signals, including strong monthly closes above the $105,000 area, price stability above a macro band near $90,000, and momentum strength on higher timeframes. A red 2026, which Egrag placed at 35–45%, would point to a stretched consolidation rather than a crash, with wider ranges and slower progress.
The debate echoed comments from chartist PlanB, who wrote on X that the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model. He argued that while the post-halving year typically performs well, 2025 clearly broke that pattern.
PlanB added that stock-to-flow tracks average prices across a cycle, not tops or bottoms, and noted that the current cycle’s average sits near $90,000, well above the prior cycle’s $34,000.
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Price Action and Holder Behavior
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at just under $97,000, up about 2% on the day, with a weekly gain near 8% and a roughly 12% rise in the last month, according to CoinGecko data.
Price moved from just under $90,000 to touching $98,000 within days, reclaiming several former resistance zones, with analysts like Ted Pillows now watching the 50-week exponential moving average near $97,500 as a technical checkpoint after the asset reclaimed the $95,000 region.
Short-term holders remain more reactive. Darkfost reported that as BTC rebounded toward $97,000, more than 40,000 BTC in profits were sent to exchanges in a single day, suggesting caution after the late-2025 correction.
By contrast, Bitcoin’s market share has climbed above 57%, while most large altcoins lagged, reinforcing its relative strength during the rebound.
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