Bitcoin’s price has been stuck between $93,000 and $98,000 for two weeks, leaving traders uncertain about its next move. Meanwhile, the recent repayments to its creditors by the defunct crypto exchange FTX have added more selling pressure, causing concerns in the market. Thus CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin could fall to $77,000 without ending its ongoing bull cycle.
Could Bitcoin Drop to $77K?
At present Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,369, showing little movement in the past 24 hours. Perhaps according to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin could experience a 30% correction from a potential all-time high (ATH) of $110,000.
This means a drop to $77,000 would still align with previous bull market trends. He reassured me that Bitcoin’s price would eventually go up, but it might go up and down a lot before that happens.
I don’t think we’ll enter a bear market this year.
We’re still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad.
I personally think that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% dip from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in past cycles.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025
Therefore, Ki Young Ju highlighted several critical support levels based on cost-basis data for Bitcoin.
Key Cost Basis Levels for Bitcoin
One of the key support levels is the $89,000 cost basis for Bitcoin ETFs, which has remained at a crucial level since November. Meanwhile, the average entry price for BTC traders on Binance is approximately $59,000.
#Bitcoin Cost Basis at $95K:
• ETFs/Custody Wallets: $89K
• Binance Traders: $59K
• Mining Companies: $57K – Falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) confirmed a bear market.
• Old Whales: $25K – Never breached historically. pic.twitter.com/QlfUx8bO08
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 19, 2025
Thus the mining breakeven point is around $57,000. Historically, dropping below this level has triggered bear markets, as seen in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.
Although the cost basis is at $25,000 of the Old Whales, a level Bitcoin has never fallen below in past cycles. These levels suggest that Bitcoin remains in a healthy position despite short-term fluctuations.
Bitcoin’s Key Levels to Watch
Despite failing to break the $100,000 mark, Ki Young Ju remains optimistic. Since Bitcoin’s price has been consolidating within the $93k to $98k range. If BTC breaks below $92,000, it could further decline toward $90,000.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands at 42, suggesting slight bearish momentum.
Despite the short-term uncertainty, If BTC climbs above $100K, it could rise further to test its last month’s high of $106K.
