Bitcoin (BTC) is on track for its strongest weekly gain since September 2025, defying a broader risk-off backdrop driven by the escalating US and Israel-Iran war.
Key takeaways:
Strategy raised $776 million this week, which could lead to the purchase of over 11,000 BTC.
US Bitcoin ETFs had $767 million in inflows in the same period.
STRC hints at $776 million in Bitcoin buying power
As of Saturday, BTC/USD had risen more than 7% over the past week to around $70,625. Over the same period, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was down 1.60%.
The divergence came as STRC.LIVE estimates indicated that Strategy may have raised enough cash through at-the-market sales of its STRC instrument this week to buy more than 11,000 BTC.
At current prices, that would amount to roughly $776 million in Bitcoin.
STRC is Strategy’s exchange-traded income-paying instrument that helps it raise investor cash for Bitcoin buys. When it trades at or above its $100 par value, Strategy can issue more shares and turn that demand into fresh BTC-buying capital.
Related: Bitcoin ‘passing geopolitical stress test’ as BTC price spikes above $72K
Last week, Strategy had purchased 17,994 BTC, equivalent to about $1.28 billion at that time. About 30% of the BTC allocation was funded by STRC sale proceeds.
Bitcoin’s price was also boosted by US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $767 million in net inflows across five straight trading days, reflecting growing demand for BTC despite the Middle East crisis.
Bitcoin gains during geopolitical crises
In the past, Bitcoin has experienced selloffs at the start of major geopolitical conflicts, only to recover and deliver larger gains.
In February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an initial dump, but was followed by a 40% BTC price rally, as shown below.
A similar sequence played out after Israel’s June 2025 strikes on Iran. Bitcoin dipped in the immediate aftermath, then flipped higher, gaining about 25% over the next two months.
During the January 2020 US–Iran flare-up after General Qasem Soleimani’s killing, Bitcoin rose more than 50% overall, even though the first reaction included a brief price drop.
Bitcoin price may rise further if history is any indication, with macro models hinting at an escalation toward $100,000 in the coming months.
Bear flag keeps BTC’s downside risks intact
Conversely, a bear flag formation on the Bitcoin chart increases the likelihood of a bull trap.
Bear flags form when the price rises inside an ascending, parallel channel after a strong downtrend. They usually resolve when the price breaks below the lower boundary and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height.
As of Saturday, Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near the flag’s upper boundary, also aligning with the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA, the red line) at around $72,750.
Applying the bear flag principle to Bitcoin’s chart places the measured downside target at around $51,000.
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