War in the Middle East failed to sink Bitcoin (BTC) below the $63,000 level. That may have attracted buyers who are attempting to maintain the price above $69,000. However, a quick recovery is unlikely. Macroeconomic newsletter Ecoinometrics said in a post on X that deep drawdowns generally unfold slowly, advising “patience rather than urgency.”
Data shared by Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch shows that when investors buy and hold BTC for at least three years, the probability of loss drops to 0.70%. Although BTC is down about 50% from its all-time high, its three-to-five year realized price of $34,780 shows that investors who bought and held during the period are sitting on large profits.
The big question on traders’ minds is when to buy BTC. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a blog post that every military action by US presidents in the Middle East since 1985 has resulted in monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve. If the current conflict stretches, the likelihood of a similar action by the Fed increases.
Could buyers push BTC and major altcoins above their resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index price prediction
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) continues to trade between the 6,775 support and the 7,002 resistance, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.
The longer the time spent inside the range, the stronger the eventual breakout from it. If the price turns down and breaks below the 6,775 level, it suggests that the bears have overpowered the bulls. That may start a deeper correction toward the 6,550 level.
Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above the 7,002 resistance to signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The index may then surge to the 7,290 level.
US Dollar Index price prediction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) skyrocketed above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (97.91), indicating aggressive buying by the bulls.
The index may rally to the 99.50 level and thereafter to the 100.54 resistance. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the 100.54 level, as a close above it suggests the start of a new uptrend.
This positive view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (97.67). That opens the doors for a drop to the 96.21 to 95.55 support zone.
Bitcoin price prediction
BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
The bulls are attempting to strengthen their position by pushing the Bitcoin price above the resistance line. If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair may surge to the breakdown level of $74,508. A close above the $74,508 level will be the first sign that the pair may have bottomed out at $60,000.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the $74,508 level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it suggests that the bears remain active at higher levels. That may result in a range formation of $60,000 to $74,508.
Ether price prediction
Ether (ETH) remains range-bound from $1,750 to $2,111, indicating a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
The bulls will have to secure a close above the $2,111 resistance to seize control. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to the 50-day SMA ($2,427) and, after that, to $3,045.
Contrary to this assumption, if the Ether price turns down from the $2,111 level, it suggests that the consolidation may continue for a few more days. The bears will be back in the driver’s seat on a close below $1,750. That clears the path for a collapse to the $1,537 level.
XRP price prediction
XRP (XRP) is struggling to rise above the 20-day EMA ($1.42), but a positive sign is that the bulls continue to exert pressure.
If buyers push the XRP price above the 20-day EMA, the XRP/USDT pair may rise to the 50-day SMA ($1.63) and later to the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line will signal a potential trend change.
Instead, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the support line, it indicates that the bears remain in control. There is support at $1.11, but if the level gives way, the decline may extend to $1.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has been trading inside the $570 to $670 range for a while, indicating buying at lower levels.
The 20-day EMA ($633) is flattening out, and the relative strength index (RSI) is gradually climbing higher. That suggests the selling pressure may be reducing. The bulls will attempt to drive the BNB price above the $670 level. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may soar to the 50-day SMA ($742).
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to defend the $670 level and pull the price below the $570 support. If they succeed, the pair may plummet to psychological support at $500.
Solana price prediction
Buyers have pushed Solana (SOL) above the 20-day EMA ($86), indicating demand at lower levels.
Sellers will attempt to halt the relief rally at $95, but if the bulls prevail, the SOL/USDT pair may soar toward $117. Such a move suggests that the Solana price may have bottomed out in the short term.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance, the pair may swing from $76 to $95 for a while longer. A break below the $76 support signals the resumption of the downtrend to $67.
Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($0.10) and the $0.09 support for the past few days.
If the $0.09 level gives way, the DOGE/USDT pair may retest the Feb. 6 low of $0.08. Buyers are expected to vigorously defend the $0.08 level, as a close below it may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.06.
The bulls will have to propel the Dogecoin price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair may then rally to the breakdown level of $0.12, where the bears are expected to step in.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers are attempting to sustain Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the $443 support, but the bears have kept up the pressure.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone increase the likelihood of a breakdown. There is minor support at $423, but it is likely to be broken. The BCH/USDT pair may then plunge to $377.
Any rebound off the $443 level is expected to face selling at the moving averages. Buyers will have to push the Bitcoin Cash price above the 50-day SMA ($546) to gain the upper hand.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) continues to trade inside the descending channel pattern, indicating that the bears remain in command.
If the Cardano price sustains below the 20-day EMA ($0.28), the bears will attempt to tug the ADA/USDT pair below the $0.25 support. If they manage to do that, the pair may tumble to the support line. A strong rebound off the support line suggests that the pair may remain inside the channel for a while longer.
The bulls will have to push and retain the price above the downtrend line to signal a potential trend change. The pair may then climb toward $0.43.
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