Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and climb to $300,000 at the peak of its next bull cycle in 2029, according to Wall Street brokerage Bernstein.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in an Aug. 26 client note that Bitcoin could recover to around $125,000 by the end of 2026 before reaching a new all-time high near $150,000 in mid-2027. Bernstein’s longer-term forecast places Bitcoin at approximately $300,000 in 2029, while its previous projection of $1 million by the end of 2033 remains intact.
The firm’s outlook is based partly on Bitcoin maintaining its historical four-year market cycle, but Bernstein also sees broader macroeconomic forces supporting the cryptocurrency.
At the center of that thesis is what investors have increasingly called the “debasement trade” — the shift toward scarce assets when concerns grow over government debt, inflation and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
Bernstein Forecasts Bitcoin Will Reach $150,000 By Mid-2027
Debt and Currency Debasement Could Boost Bitcoin
Chhugani argued that the 40-year period of declining interest rates has come to an end as governments face significantly higher debt-servicing costs.
U.S. government debt has reached roughly $40 trillion, increasing pressure on policymakers as borrowing costs remain elevated. Bernstein expects governments may eventually favour currency debasement and easier financial conditions over politically difficult fiscal adjustments.
That could benefit assets with limited supply, including Bitcoin and gold.
“Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs,” Bernstein analysts said.
Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, giving it a scarcity characteristic that traditional currencies do not have. Bernstein believes that scarcity, combined with Bitcoin’s global accessibility and growing institutional ownership, could make it increasingly attractive if investors become more concerned about the long-term value of fiat currencies.
The latest Bitcoin rally has already been closely linked to the broader macroeconomic environment. Bitcoin recently moved above $80,000 as investors reassessed U.S. fiscal policy, Treasury yields and the dollar.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the latest rally has been driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than developments specific to the cryptocurrency market.
Institutional Demand Is Changing Bitcoin’s Market
Bernstein also expects institutional adoption to play a major role in supporting Bitcoin’s next cycle.
The launch and expansion of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have given traditional investors easier access to BTC without requiring direct ownership of the cryptocurrency. Corporate treasury purchases are another potential source of sustained demand.
U.S.-domiciled digital-asset ETFs recorded approximately $2.36 billion in net inflows in one recent week, their strongest weekly performance since early October 2025. Bitcoin-focused products attracted $537 million on Aug. 20 and another $659 million on Aug. 21.
Those inflows arrived as Bitcoin recovered from its earlier decline and moved above $76,000.
Bernstein also pointed to the amount of Bitcoin that remains inactive. Around 59% of the cryptocurrency’s supply had not moved during the previous 12 months, according to ownership data cited by the firm. Bernstein sees the large inactive supply as evidence that many holders remain willing to hold Bitcoin through significant volatility.
That could reduce the amount of BTC readily available for sale if institutional demand continues to rise.
The current market structure also differs from previous cycles. Bitcoin historically experienced drawdowns of between 75% and 90% from cycle highs, Bernstein said. Its latest decline was closer to 50% from the October 2025 peak before the cryptocurrency rebounded sharply.
Leverage helped accelerate that recovery. As Bitcoin moved higher, traders holding short positions were forced to close their bets against the market, creating additional buying pressure in a classic short squeeze.
Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Net Inflow (USD) (Source: CoinGlass)
Bernstein’s Bull Case Reaches $500,000
Bernstein’s $150,000 target represents its base-case forecast, but the firm also outlined a significantly more bullish scenario.
If institutional demand accelerates while concerns over government debt and currency depreciation intensify, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 in 2029.
That scenario would represent a major acceleration from the firm’s standard four-year-cycle model.
The outlook reflects Bernstein’s view that Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a macro asset rather than simply a speculative cryptocurrency. As institutional investors gain easier access through ETFs and corporations increase their Bitcoin exposure, the asset’s price could become increasingly sensitive to changes in monetary and fiscal policy.
At the same time, the bullish thesis remains dependent on conditions that could change quickly. Higher real interest rates, stronger-than-expected monetary tightening or an improvement in U.S. fiscal conditions could weaken demand for scarce assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance on Aug. 29, 2026 (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Strategy Target Falls Despite Bitcoin Optimism
Bernstein’s positive Bitcoin outlook came alongside a more cautious view of Strategy.
The firm maintained an Outperform rating on the company but reduced its price target from $450 to $350, citing its revised Bitcoin cycle model and accelerated equity dilution.
Strategy remained the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, with 840,447 BTC, representing roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply. The company’s holdings were acquired at an average cost of $75,385 per Bitcoin, including fees and expenses.
Strategy raised approximately $2 billion through common-stock sales during the week ended Aug. 23 but did not purchase additional Bitcoin during that period. Instead, it increased its dollar reserve and repurchased preferred shares.
Bitcoin itself traded near $78,796 on Aug. 29. Futures open interest also declined 3.72% to about $54.39 billion as some derivatives traders reduced exposure following the sharp rebound.
The recent rally has put Bitcoin back in focus, but Bernstein’s forecast rests on a longer-term shift in the market. If ETF demand, institutional ownership and the debasement trade continue gaining momentum, the cryptocurrency could have a path toward $150,000 by 2027 — with the potential for substantially larger gains later in the decade.
