Rumors that Apple is developing humanoid robots have begun to circulate again after Apple analyst at TF International Securities, Ming-Chi Kuo, tweeted Wednesday that the world’s largest company is exploring humanoid and non-humanoid robots for its smart home ecosystem.
Though chatter about Apple’s robotics ambitions intensified after Apple CEO Tim Cook tweeted Wednesday that people should “get ready to meet the newest member of the family” at an Apple launch event next week, hardly anyone believes the company will be introducing a humanoid robot. Most speculation points to a new rendition of the compact iPhone SE.
Still, Kuo, who is known for his accurate predictions regarding Apple’s product roadmap—often based on insider information from Asian supply chain sources—excited speculation with his tweet.
“These products are still in the early proof-of-concept stage internally,” Kuo wrote. “While the industry debates the merits of humanoid vs. non-humanoid designs, supply chain checks indicate Apple cares more about how users build perception with robots than their physical appearance.”
The push to develop humanoid robots accelerated in 2024, with companies like Tesla, Figure, Nvidia, Agility Robotics, and Boston Dynamics introducing robots designed for human-centric workplaces. (According to a recent report, Meta is even making significant investments in humanoid robotics.)
The rapid advancements in AI and robotics have led to bold predictions, including by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who speculated in October that robots could outnumber humans by 2040, potentially surpassing 10 billion in just fifteen years.
Despite these bold predictions, even Kuo noted that the timetable for a proof-of-concept design varies, and that Apple’s robot production is unlikely to start before 2028.
“Many projects never progress beyond proof-of-concept,” Kuo wrote. “The Apple Car is probably the most notable example of a project that got stuck at this stage.”
This is not the first time that pundits have suggested that Apple might be introducing a robot to its product lineup. And clearly Apple, which produced a TV series featuring a very Apple-like home robot, isn’t exactly tamping down speculation.
But what form its first offering might take was hotly debated. Indeed, Kuo noted that Apple used the term “anthropomorphic” instead of “humanoid,” suggesting that perhaps the company’s robot roadmap would launch with something that performed human chores without looking like Sunny.
“Apple execs are trained on the customer journey,” futurist and founder of the Unaligned Newsletter, Robert Scoble, told Decrypt. “We don’t have robots in our homes, and they know we aren’t ready to have a humanoid robot in ours yet, so they will start with a variety of more specific, constrained robots to get us used to them.”
While Scoble is skeptical of Apple’s ability to lead in AI and robotics, he suggested that the company’s robotic lamp, featured in a paper by Apple’s Machine Learning Research division in January, could be a stepping stone toward larger ambitions in humanoid robotics. (See video at the bottom of page.)
“If done well, and it looks like it is, it will help consumers grow comfortable with Apple as a robotics company,” he said.
Other robotics experts pointed out that, Boston Dynamics videos notwithstanding, the field has a long way to go before humanoid robots are ready for prime time.
“We’re still in the stage of making these robots perceive the environment and act like humans,” Professor of Computer Science at USC and co-founder of Sahara AI, Sean Ren, told Decrypt. “The intellectual abilities of thinking and then making decisions is at a similar level to ChatGPT.”
Phil Elmer-Dewitt, who runs the popular Apple Blog Apple 3.0, went even further: “If Apple markets a humanoid robot in 2028—or even 2038—I’ll eat my hat.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward
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