Analysts Raise ETF Approval Odds to 95%

Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have said there is a 95% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot ETFs for XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Solana (SOL) this year.

The financial watchdog is expected to decide on the three proposals in October.

The New Approval Odds

In a Monday X post, the analysts revealed that they have raised their odds for exchange-traded funds tracking the three altcoins from 90% to 95%.

“We expect a wave of new ETFs in the second half of 2025,” commented Seyffart.

He and Balchunas also gave a 90% probability for spot ETFs tied to Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX). Meanwhile, filings from Canary Capital for Sui (SUI) and Tron (TRX) received lower estimates, at 60% and 50% respectively. SUI and TRX do not yet have any CFTC-regulated futures products, and it is still unclear whether the SEC considers them securities or not.

In June, Balchunas told investors to prepare for a possible “altcoin ETF summer,” while Seyffart noted that the SEC might approve ETFs tracking broad crypto indexes as early as July. The experts also mentioned that the agency could act early on SOL and staking-related ETF filings.

Their increased optimism follows signs of more engagement from the SEC. A Blockworks report released early last month revealed that the regulator had asked ETF issuers to submit updated S-1 registration forms and promised to respond within 30 days. It also asked applicants to explain how they plan to handle staking and in-kind redemptions.

More Developments

Elsewhere, the first U.S.-based staked crypto ETF will be launched this Wednesday. The REX Osprey SOL Staking ETF will allow investors to earn yield from staking Solana.

This follows earlier delays due to the SEC’s concerns about the structure of the offering. To meet diversification rules, the fund will invest at least 40% of its assets in other crypto exchange-traded products, mainly those listed outside the U.S.

Although the launch shows some progress, the financial sector overseer has yet to move forward with Ethereum staking ETFs. It recently postponed its decision on the Bitwise Ether staking investment product and delayed approval for the Osprey Bitcoin Trust, which had applied to convert into a spot BTC ETF.

Bitwise had proposed updating its operational spot ETH ETF to include staking rewards, allowing the fund to generate yield through Ethereum’s proof-of-stake system. However, the SEC has since initiated a formal review to evaluate potential risks to investors.