The crypto community has a new catalyst, and the excitement is building fast.
With the Clarity Act 2026 stalled in the Senate but widely expected to pass, investors are already pricing in a major rally. JPMorgan called it a “positive catalyst.” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse put the odds at 90% by end of April.
Across X, the narrative is that when regulatory clarity arrives, institutions flood in, prices explode.
But crypto trader Aaron, known as MooninPapa and a market participant since 2017, isn’t buying it.
“You’ve Seen This Movie Before”
Aaron’s argument isn’t that the Clarity Act doesn’t matter. It’s that by the time it passes, the market will have already moved.
“Buy the rumors, sell the news. Just because it’s crypto, it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be taking this into account,” he said.
His evidence is hard to ignore.
Bitcoin ETF rumors drove BTC from roughly $28,000 to $74,000, which is a 164% run. After the ETF actually launched, it was flat. Ethereum’s spot ETF announcement pumped ETH 20% in a single day. Over the following year, ETH lost 64%.
The same pattern has played out across forks, major partnerships, and protocol upgrades. And yet, every cycle, the crowd forgets.
Who’s Actually Winning Here?
Aaron also raises a harder question about who institutional adoption actually benefits.
“I’m rooting for BlackRock, a mega corporation that owns way too much Bitcoin, to have more influence over the price of Bitcoin in the future. Really.”
His broader near-term view is bearish. He believes Bitcoin topped in October 2025 and expects a bear market lasting roughly 12 months, with a price target around $35,000 by October 2026.
What It Means for Bitcoin and XRP
The Clarity Act may still pass. It may even spark a short-term move.
But if history is the guide, the traders who win won’t be the ones buying when the vote is confirmed. They’ll be the ones who bought while everyone was still asking when.
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