Bitcoin is pulling back after a strong July, and one analyst says the current dip could still be corrective rather than the start of the next major decline in this bear market.
July’s expected seasonal rally played out, hitting resistance near $66,200 now. Historically, July tends to be the strongest month of a bear market year, averaging around 10% gains, while August has historically been one of the weakest.
Bitcoin’s move into the $66,200 to $76,600 resistance zone followed that seasonal pattern closely before getting rejected.
Where Support Sits Now
Bitcoin’s support zone currently sits between $59,317 and $62,530, per analysis, a level tested over the weekend. Price reportedly spent time above the upper boundary of that zone during the weekend session, a sign the support area is holding for now.
As long as it continues to hold, the analyst says another bounce toward resistance in the $69,000 to $72,000 range remains a real possibility. If the zone breaks, the next leg lower in this bear market could begin sooner than expected.
A Failed Breakout Attempt
Bitcoin’s Friday breakout attempt failed, closing back inside its price channel, after price pushed above the descending channel’s upper boundary but couldn’t hold there on an hourly close. Price has since pulled back and is now testing a narrow resistance band between $62,874 and $63,421.
A confirmed close above $63,421 would help confirm a larger bounce forming now, according to the analysis. Without that confirmation, the near-term pressure remains tilted to the downside, with the possibility of one more dip before any larger recovery attempt takes shape.
The Bigger Picture Across the Market
Looking at total crypto market capitalization more broadly, the pattern closely mirrors Bitcoin’s own structure. The total market has tested resistance between $2.25 trillion and $2.55 trillion, while the market excluding Bitcoin faces resistance between $940 billion and $1.04 trillion, having already touched a key retracement level near $912 billion.
Altcoins specifically have shown much weaker recovery attempts throughout this cycle, with resistance between $692 billion and $765 billion and support near $582 billion and $491 billion, though the sector remains well above its 2022 bear market lows.
What Comes Next
The analyst’s broader view is that another bounce remains possible heading into August, even though August is historically a weaker month during bear markets.
Confirmation of that bounce would require Bitcoin to break above the descending channel currently containing price action, something that could take shape as soon as next week if support continues to hold.
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