AI IPO dilution is shaping up to be the next big test for markets, and one well-known crypto analyst warns it could shake risk assets before setting up crypto’s next rally.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that public listings of SpaceX, Anthropic and eventually OpenAI could leave investors who buy at the offering price facing steep losses. In a post on X shown below, he previewed his latest essay, “D is for Dilution,” which argues that as insider shares unlock, a wave of new supply could flood the market and drive prices lower.
The figures are striking. Hayes estimates that roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become tradable by June 2027, about half of the current share count. For Anthropic, he calculates that early public investors could face up to 83% dilution over the same period as lockups expire. OpenAI has not filed for an IPO yet, but Hayes expects a similar dynamic if it does.
At first glance, AI IPO dilution sounds bearish for every risk asset, crypto included. In the short term, Hayes thinks it could be.
But the full thesis tells a far more optimistic story for the crypto market.
What AI IPO Dilution Means For The Market
Hayes’ core point is that the AI trade runs on sentiment. Investors fund the sector because they believe in its future profits, and the clearest scoreboard for that belief is the share price.
If SpaceX, Anthropic or OpenAI trade below their IPO price because of insider selling, Hayes expects investors to start doubting the companies themselves, regardless of how the underlying business performs.
These listings are also about more than equity. Hayes argues the companies are going public to tap corporate bond markets directly. Weak share prices would push bond buyers to demand higher yields, making the AI infrastructure buildout far more expensive to fund.
Because banks are deeply involved in financing that buildout, slower AI lending means slower credit growth and less dollar liquidity in the system. That is how AI IPO dilution could weigh on Bitcoin and crypto in the near term.
Markets already got a taste of AI nerves this week, when chipmakers and tech stocks led a sharp sell-off on Wall Street and Bitcoin slid along with them.
AI Has Been Draining Crypto’s Liquidity
Here is where the optimistic angle comes in.
Hayes has long argued that Bitcoin moves with dollar liquidity, and that Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. In recent commentary, he estimated that around $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt was issued between 2022 and 2026, funding the AI boom while leaving little fresh capital for Bitcoin.
In other words, AI has been competing with crypto for the same pool of money. If AI IPO dilution slows the AI credit machine, that competition eases.
Why AI IPO Dilution Could End In A Crypto Rally
The most bullish part of the essay is where it ends.
Hayes argues that if the AI bubble eventually triggers a broader financial crisis, central banks will step in with bailouts. History shows what usually follows: new money creation, falling real yields and a rush into scarce assets.
He believes that fresh wave of liquidity could once again push Bitcoin and the wider crypto market higher. It is the same playbook that fueled crypto’s biggest rallies after past rounds of monetary easing.
To be clear, Hayes is not calling for an immediate rally. His firm, Maelstrom, plans to stay on the sidelines until liquidity conditions improve. But for long-term holders, his roadmap points to short-term turbulence followed by a much friendlier environment for digital assets.
Bitcoin Can’t Be Diluted
There is another reason crypto investors can approach this story with confidence.
Hayes uses Zcash as his cautionary example. Even with ZEC’s market cap at record levels, he points out that many investors who bought at launch in 2016 are still underwater because of early supply dynamics.
Crypto has lived with this lesson for years. Traders now routinely check token unlock schedules, vesting cliffs and emission rates before they buy. Wall Street is only now facing the same problem with mega-cap AI listings.
Bitcoin sits at the opposite end of that spectrum. Its supply is capped at 21 million coins, there are no insiders waiting for a lockup to expire, and after the 2024 halving its annual issuance fell below 1%. While AI IPO dilution could expand share supply by tens of percent within a year, Bitcoin’s schedule is fixed and fully public.
If dilution becomes the defining market story of 2027, that contrast could become one of Bitcoin’s strongest selling points, especially for institutions that already have easy access through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
What do you think happens next?
Will AI IPO dilution drag crypto lower first, or will the liquidity that follows kick off the next major crypto rally?
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