Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle to hold above $70,000 carried into Wednesday, raising concerns that the a drop into the $60,000 range could be the next stop. The sell-off was accompanied by futures market liquidations, a $55 billion drop in BTC open interest (OI) over the past 30 days, and rising Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.
The price weakness has analysts debating whether crypto-specific factors or larger macro-economic issues are the driving factor behind the sell-off and what it may mean for BTC’s short-term future.
Key takeaways:
About 744,000 BTC in open interest exited major exchanges in 30 days, equal to about $55 billion at current prices.
BTC futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) fell by $40 billion over the past six months.
Crypto exchange reserves have risen by 34,000 BTC since mid-January, increasing the near-term supply risk.
BTC open interest collapse points to large-scale deleveraging
CryptoQuant data noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day open interest change shows a sharp contraction across exchanges, reflecting widespread position closures, not just freshly opened short positions.
On Binance, the net open interest fell by 276,869 BTC over the past month. Bybit recorded the largest decline at 330,828 BTC, while OKX saw a reduction of 136,732 BTC on Tuesday.
In total, about 744,000 BTC worth of open positions were closed, equivalent to more than $55 billion at current prices. This drop in open positions coincided with Bitcoin’s drop below $75,000, indicating deleveraging as a driving factor, not just spot selling.
Onchain analyst Boris highlighted that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) data shows market sell orders continue to dominate, particularly on Binance, where derivatives CVD sits near -$38 billion over the past six months.
Other exchanges show varying dynamics: Bybit’s CVD flattened near $100 million after a sharp December liquidation wave, while HTX stabilized at -$200 million in CVD as the price consolidates near $74,000.
Related: Bitcoin bounces to $76K, but onchain and technical data signal deeper downside
Increased exchange flows add pressure as analysts watch key levels
Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged in January, totaling about 756,000 BTC, led by Binance and Coinbase. Since early February, inflows have exceeded 137,000 BTC, underscoring traders’ repositioning and not necessarily leaving the market.
On the supply side, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that exchange reserves have risen to 2.752 million BTC from 2.718 million BTC since Jan. 19. The analyst warned that continued growth above 2.76 million BTC could increase selling pressure. The analyst said that a complete capitulation has yet to take place, which may happen at lower price levels.
Market analyst Scient said Bitcoin is unlikely to form a bottom in a single day or week. Durable market bottoms may develop through two to three months of consolidation near the major support zones, with higher time frame indicators. Scient noted that whether this structure forms in the high $60,000 range or the low $50,000 level remains unclear.
Bitcoin Trader Mark Cullen continues to see potential downside toward $50,000 in a broader macro scenario, but expects a short-term reversion toward the local point of control ($89,000 to $86,000) after BTC swept weekly lows below $74,000 on Tuesday.
Related: Bitcoin’s $68K trend line seen as potential BTC price floor: Traders
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