The crypto market is set to see $3.29 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, a development that could trigger short-term price volatility and impact traders’ profitability.
Of this total, Bitcoin (BTC) options account for $2.88 billion, while Ethereum (ETH) options represent $417 million.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Holders Brace For Volatility
According to data on Deribit, 35,176 Bitcoin options will expire today, slightly higher than last week, where 29,005 BTC contracts went bust. The options contracts due for expiry today have a put-to-call ratio of 0.74 and a maximum pain point of $86,000.
The put-to-call ratio indicates a generally bullish sentiment despite the pioneer crypto’s ongoing descent from the $90,000 mark.
Meanwhile, 220,301 Ethereum options will expire today, down from 223,395 last week. With a put-to-call ratio of 0.69 and a max pain point of $2,100, the expirations could influence ETH’s short-term price movement.
As the options contracts near expiration at 8:00 UTC today, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are expected to approach their respective maximum pain points. According to BeInCrypto data, BTC was trading for $81,992 as of this writing, whereas ETH was exchanging hands for $1,891.
This suggests a potential recovery for Bitcoin and Ethereum prices as smart money aims to move them toward the “max pain” level. According to the Max Pain theory in options trading, prices tend to gravitate toward strike prices where the highest number of contracts, both calls and puts, expire worthless.
“Max pain has been ticking lower week after week. Do you see this continuing, or is a reversal coming?” Deribit analysts posed.
Nevertheless, price pressure on BTC and ETH will likely ease after 08:00 UTC on Friday when Deribit settles the contracts. However, the sheer scale of these expirations could still fuel heightened volatility in the crypto markets.
Analysts Discuss Crypto Market Sentiment
According to analysts at Greeks.live, market sentiment is predominantly bearish in the short-term despite positive US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data earlier this week.
“Traders are watching key potential support levels and discussing a potential bottom for BTC, with some suggesting $60,000 levels as a possible downside target,” the analysts wrote.
The analysts also note that some believe President Trump’s tariffs and inflation are more significant market drivers than geopolitical events like a Ukraine peace deal.
“Vladimir Putin says he agrees with proposals for ceasefire – but adds he has questions and Russia ‘now on the offensive in all areas’,” Sky News reported.
Analysts note that peace and stability could fuel market confidence, which could be bullish for stocks and crypto. This aligns with a recent JPMorgan survey, in which 51% of traders identified tariffs and inflation as the top market movers for the year.
Elsewhere, analyst Tony Stewart discusses option flows in the crypto market, focusing on Bitcoin derivatives trading on Deribit. He indicates shifts in market sentiment and trading strategies that saw put buyers and call sellers profit from the March 11 price dip to 76,500 levels, followed by a less supported bounce back due to heavy selling of calls above $90,000.
According to Stewart, this highlights a strategic rotation by traders, moving from overly optimistic March and June call positions to more conservative April and May calls. It also reflects adjustments to market volatility.
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