$1.15B in Options Signal Growing Risk

Options market shows fear as traders pile into the $104,000–$108,000 Bitcoin puts expiring later this month.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are hedging heavily against further losses, with more than $1.15 billion in bearish options flooding the market in the past 24 hours, according to derivatives tracker Greeks.live.

The data shows a sharp tilt toward downside protection, signaling that large players may be preparing for more volatility as BTC extends its slide through mid-October.

Bracing for Impact

In a post on X, Greeks.live noted that the options market was showing clear signs of fear. The activity is concentrated in shallow out-of-the-money (OTM) puts with strikes between $104,000 and $108,000, which expire this week and month.

At the same time, the options skew, a measure of the relative cost of puts versus calls, has turned more negative, particularly for short-dated contracts. This movement indicates that liquidity providers and market makers are the ones driving the activity, with the firm concluding that, given this landscape, purchasing put options appears to be the most judicious approach for traders looking to protect themselves.

“Options participants — particularly large liquidity providers/market makers — are pricing in substantial downside risk, with sentiment nearing that seen after the broader market drop on the 11th,” wrote Greeks.live.

This derivatives gloom is mirrored in spot markets. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at around $110,076, reflecting a 2.3% drop in the last 24 hours and a more significant 9.4% dip over seven days. Further, the downward momentum seems to have extended to Binance, where funding rates for perpetual futures contracts recently hit a three-day negative run, an unusual bearish streak for 2025.

Some more analysis from CryptoQuant pointed to an increasing volume of deposits to the exchange and a high percentage of market sell orders, implying that selling pressure could persist.

A Speculative Market at a Crossroads

The current caution comes in the wake of crypto’s largest-ever liquidation event on October 10, which erased $19 billion and reset over-leveraged positions.

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Despite a partial recovery, the market appears to be in a delicate state, with on-chain data showing Bitcoin had entered a mature “speculative phase.” The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio is at +0.52, a level associated with late-cycle euphoria in previous bull markets. Additionally, short-term holders now control a record 44% of the realized cap, meaning newer investors are dominating the market while long-term holders take profits.

While this October is currently in the red, analyst Joe Consorti noted that in the last six instances of negative mid-October performance, the month has always closed positively. However, crypto litigator Joe Carlasare has proposed that the recent downturn is necessary to work through excessive optimism tied to seasonal Uptober expectations, potentially setting the stage for a longer cycle extending into 2026.