Despite Ethereum (ETH) price plunging by more than 20% so far in the fourth quarter of 2026, historical data suggest potential further upside by the end of the year.
As of November 10, the average fourth-quarter return of Ethereum since its inception is about 16.8%, while the median is approximately 6.29%.
With Ethereum price having closed the third quarter of 2026 at $2,684, the average and median targets for the fourth quarter are $3,134.91 and $2,852.82, respectively, according to data from CryptoRank.
Ethereum quarterly returns (USD). Source: CryptoRank
With ETH trading at $2,126 at the time of writing, the historical average fourth-quarter return indicates a potential 47% upside. Meanwhile, the historical median return for the fourth quarter signals a possible 34% rally over the next 51 days.
Worth noting that Ethereum’s 70.9% uptick during the third quarter of 2026 was the highest since it was created. As a result, if the past returns are a strong indicator of future performance, ETH price is well poised to gain bullish momentum in the remaining part of the year.
Ethereum price performance today
Over the past 30 days, ETH price has declined by more than 15%, thereby increasing fear of further selloff. The altcoin had a market capitalization of approximately $259.85 billion at the time of reporting, with its 24-hour average trading volume up 132% to $15.2 billion.
ETH performance on November 10, source: CoinMarketCap
Even though the crypto asset has experienced sustained selling pressure over the past 30 days, historical analysis suggests a possible bull run in the coming few weeks.
Such a bullish sentiment could be bolstered by renewed demand for United States spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid a broader crypto bullish outlook led by Bitcoin (BTC). Moreover, ETH remains at the helm of real-world asset tokenization due to regulatory clarity in the United States.
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