Bitcoin miners face weak dollar revenue even as the mining forward market priced in little additional competition through December, according to an October 30 analysis by mining data platform Hashrate Index. That could give miners a respite after difficulty’s 16.4% rebound.
Hashprice, the expected daily mining revenue for a unit of computing power, stood at $32.86 per petahash per second per day on November 2 at 18:00 UTC. That was down 8.7% from $35.99 a week earlier, according to the latest completed weekly snapshot.
Hashrate Index, Luxor’s mining data and research platform, put implied network computing power at 1,056 exahashes per second in November and 1,059 in December in its October 30 analysis. Both were near the approximately 1,062 EH/s average over the mining epoch that ended October 29.
Those are forward-implied levels, rather than observed future hashrate or scheduled difficulty changes. The linked September methodology assumes transaction fees of about 0.02 BTC per block when translating contract prices into implied network growth. Different fee outcomes can therefore change that interpretation.
The curve’s flattening followed a rise in difficulty from 127.45 trillion before September 19’s adjustment to 148.36 trillion on October 29. A pause would leave miners competing at that elevated level.
The November 2 update put average forward hashprice at $33.04 per PH/s/day for November through April 2027. This is an indicative revenue benchmark for that period, with actual execution dependent on agreed contract terms.
Mining competition and revenue are different exposures01 / COMPETITIONWinter growth is priced to pauseNetwork hashrate · EH/s · October 30 curve1,1001,0001,0621,0561,059Epoch ended Oct. 29November · impliedDecember · implied02 / DOLLAR REVENUESpot hashprice fell 8.7% in a weekOct. 26$35.99Nov. 2$32.86$33.04Forward averageNov. 2026–Apr. 2027All revenue rates: USD/PH/s/day
Mining competition and revenue are different exposures01 / COMPETITIONWinter growth ispriced to pauseNetwork EH/s · October 30 curve1,1001,0001,0621,0561,059Oct. 29epochNovemberimpliedDecemberimplied02 / DOLLAR REVENUESpot fell 8.7% in a weekOct. 26$35.99Nov. 2$32.86$33.04Forward averageNov. 2026–Apr. 2027Revenue rates: USD per PH/s/dayNovember 2 snapshot · indicative forwards
How does the miner manage revenue risk?
How does the miner manage revenue risk?Unhedged outputForward-covered output
The revenue rate moves with benchmark inputs, while power costs and actual output determine the margin.
Revenue and operating costs are separate inputs into marginUnhedged outputRevenue rate floatsPrice, fees, subsidy and difficultyPower costs + actual outputUptime and power prices still matterOperating margin remains variable
Revenue and operating costs are separate inputs into marginUnhedged outputRevenue rate floatsPrice + fees + subsidy + difficultyPower costs + actual outputUptime and power prices still matterOperating margin remains variable
A matched, performing hedge stabilizes the covered benchmark rate; operating costs and production remain exposed.
Revenue and operating costs are separate inputs into marginCovered outputBenchmark rate stabilizedMatched quantity, dates and performancePower costs + actual outputUptime and contract obligations remainOperating margin remains variable
Revenue and operating costs are separate inputs into marginCovered outputBenchmark rate stabilizedMatched quantity + dates + performancePower costs + actual outputUptime and contract obligations remainOperating margin remains variable
Stable competition and a forward hedge address different risks; neither fixes operating profit.
Curve levels are implications, not observed future hashrate. The November 2 snapshot is dated 18:00 UTC. Forward averages are indicative for November–April, not executable offers. Exposure diagrams assume matched quantities and dates and contract performance.
What a hedge still leaves exposed
A plateau in competition would limit additional pressure on revenue. Selling forward serves a separate purpose: stabilizing the benchmark revenue rate for output matched to the contract’s quantity and dates, if the contract performs.
In Luxor’s cash-settled contract, a seller receives the difference when the daily index falls below the agreed price and owes the difference when it rises above it. Matching the quantity and dates to actual output matters: the hedge does not ensure the machines keep producing.
A deliverable forward instead provides upfront buyer payment against delivery to Luxor’s mining pool, subject to seller credit checks and possible delivery margin. Luxor is the counterparty to both sides, and its order book displays buying and selling interest that its team must confirm as trades.
For operators with fixed dollar power costs, stabilizing the dollar revenue rate on matched output can improve cash-flow planning. Higher-cost fleets still need that revenue to cover electricity and other expenses; more efficient fleets have more room between gross receipts and costs.
Dollar hashprice also depends on Bitcoin’s price, fees and subsidy, alongside difficulty. Even if competition holds steady, weaker Bitcoin pricing or fees can reduce unhedged revenue.
