Bitcoin’s recent struggles have sparked another heated argument between investors, and this time, there’s a potential $1 million wager involved.
Real estate investor Grant Cardone has challenged venture capitalist Jason Calacanis to bet on whether Bitcoin can return to its previous all-time high within two years.
The disagreement follows Calacanis’ prediction that Bitcoin will never reach another record and could fall toward $57,000 over the next 12 months.
Cardone sees a different future. He believes Bitcoin can recover, and he’s willing to put a substantial amount of money behind that expectation.
TL;DR
Grant Cardone has offered Jason Calacanis a $1 million wager that Bitcoin will reach $126,210.50 by October 28, 2028.
Calacanis expects Bitcoin to fall toward $57,000 within a year and believes its previous record will never be surpassed.
Other Bitcoin supporters have proposed similar bets, but Calacanis has not publicly accepted Cardone’s challenge.
A $1 Million Challenge Over Bitcoin’s Future
The dispute began after Calacanis shared a pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin on October 27.
He argued that investors should consider shifting their attention toward artificial intelligence, suggesting that Bitcoin offers fewer opportunities for future growth.
His prediction was particularly bold: Bitcoin would revisit $57,000 and never surpass its previous all-time high.
Cardone responded the following day with a direct financial challenge.
He offered to wager $1 million that Bitcoin would reach at least $126,210.50 by October 28, 2028.
The proposed target is slightly higher than Bitcoin’s October 2025 record of approximately $126,080.
Cardone also suggested placing the money with an independent third party to ensure the winner receives payment.
We should emphasize that this remains a proposed wager, not a confirmed agreement.
Calacanis has responded publicly but hasn’t accepted Cardone’s terms.
Why Jason Calacanis Expects Bitcoin To Fall
Calacanis’ concerns focus on declining investor enthusiasm and the movement of capital away from Bitcoin.
He pointed to withdrawals from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as evidence that demand could weaken further.
His argument also reflects a broader question facing investors: whether Bitcoin can continue attracting capital when other technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, offer competing opportunities.
We wouldn’t dismiss those concerns entirely.
Bitcoin has experienced a difficult year, and declining institutional demand can place additional pressure on prices.
However, ETF outflows don’t necessarily indicate that every category of investor is abandoning the market.
Different institutions buy and sell for different reasons.
As we follow Bitcoin market developments, separating short-term trading decisions from longer-term investment strategies remains important.
Bitcoin Supporters Join The Million-Dollar Debate
Cardone isn’t the only investor challenging Calacanis’ prediction.
Bitcoin advocate Fred Krueger has proposed another $1 million wager, although his suggested deadline extends to October 2036.
Hollywood producer and Bitcoin supporter Terence Michael also offered to participate in the dispute.
Meanwhile, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow and Blockstream CEO Adam Back expressed interest in supporting Cardone’s challenge.
The reactions demonstrate how divided investors remain about Bitcoin’s future.
Some believe the latest downturn represents another temporary correction. Others question whether Bitcoin can regain the momentum that previously pushed prices to record levels.
For us, the more interesting question isn’t who wins an argument online.
It’s whether Bitcoin can attract enough sustained demand to justify another major rally.
Bitwise Predicts A Much Higher Bitcoin Price
The disagreement arrives alongside a considerably more optimistic forecast from investment manager Bitwise.
In its October 28 Bitcoin outlook, the company raised its projected Bitcoin price for 2036 to approximately $1.6 million.
That represents an estimated compound annual growth rate of 34.3%.
Bitwise bases its forecast partly on growing institutional adoption, limited Bitcoin supply, and demand for assets that could preserve purchasing power over time.
However, the company also identifies significant risks, including quantum computing, technological disruption, and unfavorable regulatory changes.
These are projections rather than guaranteed outcomes.
We think it’s important to distinguish a financial model covering ten years from Cardone’s much shorter two-year wager.
Both express confidence in Bitcoin, but they rely on very different time horizons.
Can Bitcoin Reach Another Record By 2028?
When Cardone issued his challenge, Bitcoin was trading near $80,847, approximately 36% below its previous peak.
Reaching his $126,210.50 target from that level would require a gain of roughly 56%.
That’s a substantial recovery, although Bitcoin has experienced larger percentage moves during previous market cycles.
Several factors could influence the outcome, including institutional investment, ETF demand, economic conditions, and regulatory developments.
We’ll also be monitoring changes in the wider cryptocurrency market, where Bitcoin’s performance often influences investor sentiment.
For now, Cardone’s challenge has attracted considerable attention, but no million-dollar agreement has been finalized.
The next two years may provide an answer to the price question, regardless of whether the wager ever takes place.
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