Key Takeaways
Arthur Hayes told Crypto Wendy O that Strategy’s edge faded once ETFs gave investors other ways to own BTC.Hayes said he watches ETF inflows over Saylor’s buys after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $241M last week.Hayes backed a $1 million bitcoin without a date, roughly 11.7x the $85,300 price sits on Oct. 6.
The Case Against Strategy in Two Minutes
The Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom chief made the argument in a 30-minute interview with crypto host Crypto Wendy O. He started with history, adding:
“I think Michael Saylor had his time in the sun. For years, an institutional investor or someone with a retirement account had few clean options, so Strategy was your only way to get some sort of exposure to bitcoin. Spot purchases were off limits for many, and there were no exchange-traded funds (ETFs).”
That world is gone, in his view. “Once you have all these other products and all these other ways to access crypto, why would you trade this funky stock thing?” Hayes asked, waving at the preferred shares and the debate over how to calculate the premium. “It’s just corporate finance games.”
He gave Saylor credit before landing another jab. “Kudos to Saylor, he’s a genius,” Hayes said, “but it’s not going to work when you don’t have a persistent bid from folks who have other options.”
More Punches Thrown
Another sharp criticism came in relation to Strategy’s continued selling, adding:
We know he’s going to sell, right? We know that when mNAV is above one, he’ll issue stock.
The multiple to net asset value (mNAV) compares Strategy’s market value with the value of the bitcoin it holds.
The paperwork aligns with that, as Strategy disclosed a BTC Monetization Program on June 29 that lets it sell bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion for its USD Reserve, with the full amount still unused as of July 5. Its latest weekly filing shows $15.7 million of MSTR stock sales funding part of a 334 BTC buy. Elsewhere, Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC in Q3 to prove its treasury was liquid.
Hayes then said what he watches instead, adding:
I care more about inflows into ETFs. [Saylor] is gonna have to do more AI generated videos to stay relevant in this industry, because it doesn’t matter anymore what he does.
Lastly, he called Saylor’s style “chicanery” and a “PT Barnum” circus for institutional investors, a theme he raised back in May when he warned holders not to treat Saylor as a safety net.
A Single Word on BTC’s $1 Million Bet
When asked whether bitcoin will hit a million dollars one day, Hayes emphatically replied “yes,” but failed to give an exact date or any sort of hard data to back his assertion. Bitcoin currently sits near $85,300, about 32% below the $126,199 record set exactly a year earlier. A $1 million bitcoin means roughly 11.7x from today.
Hayes, however, kept his skepticism for other corners of the market, saying that “99.99%” of memecoin traders will continue to lose their money while simultaneously calling the stock market a bigger Ponzi than crypto.
His closing message on Strategy was simpler, i.e. bitcoin’s price no longer runs through Saylor but through the ETF tape.
