CLARITY odds narrow as bill enters the final straight
Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to just 10%. In May it had estimated the chance of passage at 75%.
Multiple political issues remain unresolved and the Senate only has 14 days in session to pass the bill after it reconvenes on Sept. 14.
Unless an initial motion to proceed vote occurs immediately upon lawmakers’ return to Washington, there would only be enough time for the CLARITY Act to pass if it “dominates basically the entire working session,” wrote Galaxy head of research, Alex Thorn.
If the bill doesn’t pass, the SEC and CFTC plan to step into the breach by issuing their own rules for crypto markets. The SEC scheduled an open meeting on Friday to unveil its “clear rules of the road” but then cancelled it due to an “an unforeseen scheduling issue.” The White House was reportedly unhappy that the SEC going rogue on crypto rules could anger Democrats and scuttle the delicate negotiations underway to pass CLARITY.
SEC chair Paul Atkins, President Donald Trump and a series of big wigs from Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Chainlink, NYSE and Nasdaq will meet at the White House on Wednesday to discuss crypto regulation and explore ways to get the bill over the line.
The following day the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s new Innovation Advisory Committee will meet to discuss regulation of crypto, AI and prediction markets.
Crypto companies seek access to frontier AI cybersecurity capabilities as fears of more hacks grow
Cryptocurrency companies including Anchorage Digital, BitGo, Bitwise, Blockstream, Ledger and Trezor have urged frontier artificial intelligence (AI) labs to give Bitcoin developers early access to their most capable models.
An open letter, published by the Bitcoin Policy Institute said Bitcoin Core devs and other crypto developers are being blocked by guardrails on publicly available frontier systems, leaving them to rely on less capable open-weight models.
“Without dedicated access programs, defenders may lack the tools needed to keep pace with evolving threats to the infrastructure they maintain.”
The threat from AI identified exploits has become a key focus after $116 million was stolen from Coldcard hardware wallets. The Bitcoin Red Team subsequently used AI to identify thousands of potential cybersecurity issues using open source Chinese models.
New threats to hardware wallet owners have continued to emerge over the past few days, with the personal details of more than 50,000 users leaked in two separate incidents. Trezor reported a breach of personal data affecting about 14,000 users through its shipping provider, ShipMonk. Users who received its products from the US, UK, Sweden, Colombia, Brazil, Italy, and Portugal between May 10 and Aug. 8 are now at high risk from potential phishing attacks using their personal information.
Cryptocurrency wallet provider SafePal has also just disclosed its own data breach that saw unauthorized access to almost 40,000 customers’ order information, including names, addresses and purchasing data. It has since identified and taken down more than 30 fraudulent websites and phishing links tied to the breach.
CFTC and states battle over who gets to regulate prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has ordered prediction market Kalshi to ignore New York’s restraining order and continue operating normally.
The CFTC said that New York’s enforcement action against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling business constituted a market emergency as it would bar Kalshi from operating prediction markets nation-wide. It believes the Commodity Exchange Act requires the CFTC to provide a uniform national derivatives market. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said that Congress did not intend derivatives exchanges to face a “patchwork of state gaming laws.”
A few days later a Washington state judge ordered prediction market platform Kalshi to stop operating in the state and rejected its argument that federal commodities law preempts Washington gambling law. Kalshi has been ordered to implement IP-address and residency-based geofencing by Aug. 19 and a GeoComply multi-source geofencing system by Sept. 2.
Even the New York City Council wants to regulated prediction markets and it has launched an investigation into prediction market firms to examine if they are using “false and deceptive marketing” through influencers to target young adults.
Ethereum Foundation revamps post-quantum plan and narrows scope for Hegota hard fork
The Ethereum Foundation is moving away from the Poseidon hash function in its planned post-quantum architecture, according to researcher Justin Drake.
On Thursday, Drake said the foundation would instead rely on established and battle tested alternatives such as SHA or BLAKE.
Poseidon is a relatively new hash function tailored to work better with zero knowledge proofs, which will help compress large post quantum signatures sizes. However, Drake said new developments mean that SNARKS can be tailored to work better with existing hash functions.
A production-ready leanVM is targeted for 2027, followed by deployments across Ethereum’s consensus, data and execution layers in 2028.
Ethereum developers are also reviewing 66 proposals to narrow them down as part of scoping the next major Ethereum upgrade to follow Glamsterdam called Hegotá
Censorship resistance proposal FOCIL is currently the only Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) scheduled for inclusion. A number of other EIPs are focused on privacy.
Core developers aim to ship the Hegotá upgrade next year, while Glamsterdam is expected in the coming months.
Tether completes first full financial audit, receives clean KPMG opinion
Tether has finally completed the first full independent audit of its annual financial statements, with KPMG US issuing a clean opinion on the stablecoin issuer’s 2025 accounts.
The audit covered Tether’s balance sheet, income statement and cash flows for the year ended Dec. 31, 2025, including the assets backing its issued tokens and the liabilities they represent. Tether said the audited statements showed reserves exceeding liabilities by $6.814 billion.
Unlike Tether’s quarterly reserve attestations, which it has published for years, the full audit subjected the company’s broader financial statements and underlying evidence to independent examination.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.3% to trade at $62,842, Ethereum (ETH) is down 2.3% to trade at $1,872 and XRP (XRP) is down 4.2% to 99 cents. The total market cap is at $2.16 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Velvet (VELVET) with a 131% gain, Ether.fi (ETHFI) on 31%, and Chainlink (LINK) on 14%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are Uniswap (UNI) which was down 18%, Aptos (APT) down 12% and Pepe (PEPE) down 11%.
Top Prediction of the Week
Bitcoin could bottom in October, altcoins are ‘basically dead,’ Swan CEO says
Bitcoin could bottom in October before recovering to around $130,000 in 2028, according to Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten.
He argued that Bitcoin has so far bottomed about 12 months after each previous bull market peak, and the previous peak was in October last year.
He told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could fall to $57,000, or even $53,000, before a quick recovery, and could reach around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving.
Top FUD of the Week
Bitcoin to $1M by 2030 is ‘mathematically impossible’ says Markus Thielen
The numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 simply don’t add up, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.
“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen told Trade Secrets, arguing that Bitcoin would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach a per Bitcoin price of $1 million. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.
“We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here.”
Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up: Glassnode
Bitcoin is seeing its longest capitulation since the end of the 2022 bear market, onchain analytics platform Glassnode reported on Monday.
The firm said that forty-five Bitcoin (BTC) price metrics it tracks under the Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap show the longest “capitulation” phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. But it warned that aggregate readings will have to get even worse to match areas that marked previous bear-market bottoms, says creator Rafael Schultze-Kraft.
“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” he commented.
Missouri trio charged over alleged Bitcoin kidnapping plot
Three Missouri men were charged over an alleged August 2024 plot to kidnap a Bitcoin holder and steal his holdings.
Sedric Louis, John Davis and Martel Williams were allegedly hired to kidnap and force a Bitcoin holder to transfer cryptocurrency to accounts controlled by organizers, according to a Tuesday press release by the US Attorney’s Office. They traveled from St. Louis to Connecticut, where they rented vehicles and obtained air rifles to stake out the victim.
After staking out the intended target for two days, they abandoned the plan for fear of being caught on home security cameras. Shortly afterward, another crew from Florida arrived to carry out the plan.
Top Magazine Features of the Week
Five years after El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender, the experiment has fallen short of its original promises for locals, but it’s been great for Bitcoin’s global profile.
Suspected North Korean IT workers joined a fake crypto startup — without realizing their every move was being tracked to extract valuable intel.
Solana’s proposed fee overhaul would make resource-heavy transactions more expensive while cutting costs for simpler activity, and it increases the amount of SOL burned.
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